Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Baltimore/Washington

September 8, 2004Page County, Shenandoah County, Virginia

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this flash flood warning at Sep 8, 2004, 8:32 PM EDT for Page County, Shenandoah County, Virginia. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 8, 2004, 8:32 PM EDT (00:32 UTC)
Expired: Sep 8, 2004, 11:30 PM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Baltimore/Washington
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Page County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 622 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 605 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 311 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 383 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.0
Supercell composite: 6.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS51 KLWX 090034
FFWLWX
VAC139-171-090330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
832 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA
  SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT

* AT 826 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
  OVER THE WARNED AREA.  EMERGENCY MANAGERS REPORT MULTIPLE ROADS ARE 
  STILL CLOSED ANOTHER DUE TO HIGH WATER. 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE      
  POSSIBLE THROUGH 1130 PM EDT.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN
  INCLUDE STANLEY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES CARRIED AWAY BY RISING
WATER. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT.
STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES AND STORM DRAINS AS THEY CAN BECOME
DEADLY TORRENTS AFTER HEAVY RAIN. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3853 7860 3855 7846 3889 7847 3888 7863

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 090240
FFSLWX
VAC139-090315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1039 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PAGE COUNTY IS CANCELED...

EMERGENCY OFFICIALS REPORT THAT WATERS HAVE RECEDED IN THE 
COUNTY...AND HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELED.

$$

ABW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 8, 8:26 PM EDT, 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 8:26 PM EDT, 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

EVENING UPDATE...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSRA OVR THE
ERN WV PANHANDLE/WRN MD AND NRN VA. DRY SLOT IS PUNCHING INTO THE
SRN AND CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY ATTM AS SEEN ON IR AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES MAINLY FOR
THE ERN WV PANHANDLE AND WRN MD WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY THERE RIGHT
NOW. 18Z GFS SUGGESTS AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT (H7-H5)
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AFTER 06Z THU. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON IR AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH DRY SLOT ALREADY INTO
AUGUSTA COUNTY VA. SO EXPECTING RAIN TAPER OFF TO SCT LIGHT SHRAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONSENSUS HERE IN THE OFFICE WAS TO LEAVE CURR FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR NOW BUT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO END AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AFTER TOR
WATCH EXPIRATION. THINK WOULD BE ABLE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH AT THAT
TIME TOO. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE CITY OF
WAYNESBORO. THE SOUTH RIVER FCST TO CREST NEAR FLOOD STAGE THERE
AROUND 2AM THU. PLEASE REFER TO CURR FLOOD WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS.

ROSA

PREVIOUS AFD....
&&

.AVIATION: CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE AROUND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT TREND SHOULD BE FOR BASES TO LOWER AS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY GUST TOMORROW AROUND 20-25KT
MIXING HIGHER WINDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE: WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 1-2 FEET ABOUT NORMAL (LEVELS ARE ABOUT 0.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
CURRENTLY). WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION
AND MOVING AWAY. A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING IF WE BREAK OUT WI SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
DESTABILIZE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. BUT WILL ONLY GO 30 POPS EARLY...WI
DECREASING POPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

THEN WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS. A
WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND SO WILL KEEP A SLT CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA WI BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES
     MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016>018.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES
     VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM FORECASTER: ND

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 8, 11:31 AM EDT, 9 hours 1 minute before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1131 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-091600-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1131 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...
THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FROM THE FOOTHILLS WESTWARD. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE
APPALACHIANS...THE RISK FOR SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND
WASHINGTON DC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RISK INCLUDES THE ENTIRE BALTIMORE
AND WASHINGTON METRO AREA. FRANCES HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SHORT
LIVED TORNADOES IN THE CAROLINAS YESTERDAY.

TIDES ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS ESTUARIES WILL INCREASE TO 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE WATER LEVELS NEAR
BANKFULL DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN LOW LYING SPOTS OF ALEXANDRIA
VIRGINIA...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY NIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
IF ANY FLOODING DEVELOPS...IT MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

ROGOWSKI

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 8, 7:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
710 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CROZET                  38.07N 78.70W
09/08/2004                   ALBEMARLE          VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RT 810 UNDER WATER

&&

AW

Local storm report, Sep 8, 7:37 PM EDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
737 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MCGAHEYSVILLE           38.37N 78.73W
09/08/2004                   ROCKINGHAM         VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED

&&

AW

Local storm report, Sep 8, 7:41 PM EDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
741 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DEERFIELD               38.20N 79.41W
09/08/2004                   AUGUSTA            VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN SOUTHWEST AUGUSTA COUNTY

&&

AW

Local storm report, Sep 8, 7:45 PM EDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
745 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STANARDSVILLE           38.30N 78.44W
09/08/2004                   GREENE             VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER BRIDGES

&&

AW

Local storm report, Sep 8, 7:48 PM EDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
748 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MATHIAS                 38.88N 78.87W
09/08/2004                   HARDY              WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED IN MULTIPLE TOWNS

&&

AW

Local storm report, Sep 8, 7:53 PM EDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
753 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE ROMNEY             39.40N 78.69W
09/08/2004                   HAMPSHIRE          WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED

&&

AW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 8, 8:08 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Frederick	3 hr
Sep 8, 8:16 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Albemarle	3 hr
Sep 8, 8:36 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Augusta	3 hr
Sep 8, 10:19 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		116 min
Sep 8, 10:54 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Albemarle	3 hr
Sep 8, 11:53 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Frederick, City of Winchester	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.