Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Baltimore/Washington

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 272359
FFSLWX
MDC009-037-280230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CALVERT AND ST. MARYS COUNTIES
   UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 757 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MARYLAND. RADAR INDICATES THAT UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY 
FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL 
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1030 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE CALIFORNIA...GOLDEN BEACH...LEONARDTOWN...LEXINGTON PARK...
PATUXENT RIVER NAS...PRINCE FREDERICK...ST. MARYS CITY...LUSBY...
HOLLYWOOD AND PINEY POINT.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$
ND

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 280227
FFSLWX
MDC009-037-280245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR CALVERT 
AND ST. MARYS COUNTIES...

AT 1025 PM EDT...RADAR SHOWED THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT 
OF CALVERT AND ST. MARYS COUNTIES. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME 
RESIDUAL PONDING OF WATER ON ROAD WAYS AND IN LOW LYING AND MAY 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.


$$
ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TNGT...

ALL PRODUCTS RELEASED.

I WL CONFESS...MY ABILITY TO WRITE DAY AFTR DAY ABT LOW
CLDS/DAMPNESS HAS REACHED ITS LIMIT. IVE GOT NOTHING MORE TO SAY.
AS I THOUGHT LAST JUL WAS WET I LOOKED AT DCA FOR THIS JUL VS JUL
03. THRU 7/26 PCPN TOTALS ARE ABT THE SAME 4.8. ITS RAINED
MEASURABLY ON 9 DAYS SO FAR THIS JUL...ECLIPSED BY THE 13 IT RAINED
ON LAST. NEITHER HERE NOR THERE...JUST A FACTOID.

AM LVG THE FFA IN EFFECT THRU 6 PM...ALTHO ATTM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED
ABT IT. IFLOWS GAGES IN ERN WV HAVE RECORDED NOTHING IN THE LAST 6
HRS. THE BAND OF HVIER PCPN IS BARELY MAKING ANY EWD PROGRESS.

WOODY

&&

.LONG TERM...WED AND BEYOND...
BASIC MDL AGREEMENT ON TAKING H5 CLSD LOW OVR GRTLKS NEWD WED-THU
WHILE OPENING IT UP AND WEAKENING IT. RSLTNT PTTN ACRS NOAM
CERTAINLY DOES NOT RESEMBLE SUMMER. ATLC RDG PARKED RATHER FAR TO
THE N...NOT IN ITS TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL POSN. ANOTHR DEEP H5 L/WV
TROF...W/ A CLSD LOW OF ITS OWN OVER MANITOBA...SLICING DWN THE
PLAINS.

CDFNT RUNS INTO ATLC RDG...STALLS OUT...AND WEAKENS ALNG ERN SEABRD
WED-THU...SUPPORTED BY GOOD SFC-H5 CONFLUENCE AND SUPPORT OF RRQ OF
UPR JET. THIS FLOW WL SUPPLY BOTH ATLC AND GLFMEX MSTR. SO...HAD TO
TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO FCST. ETA/GFS SIMILAR
IN QPF FIELDS...THO THEIR RESPECTIVE MOS PRODUCTS DEPICT SOME
VARIATION BY 4TH-5TH PDS. FCST GRIDS WED NGT-THU WL SPLIT THE
DIFF...ONLY BECUASE BLV THAT THERE IS THE RISK OF PCP...BUT RECENT
HISTORY WUD SUGGEST MORE CAUTION THAN MAV...SPCLY CONSIDERING ITS
WET BIAS. ALSO...TRIED TO DELINIATE VARIATION BTWN SRN MD /WET/ AND
PTMC HIGHLANDS...WHICH LIKLEY WL BE MAJORITY INFLUENCED BY SFC
HIPRES BLDG FM GRTLKS.

MADE A FEW TEMP CHGS NXT CPL OF DAYS TO LINE UP W/ PCPN CHGS...
DECREASING MAXT WED AND THU...AND INCR MIN-T EACH NGT...SPLCY IN THE
E WHERE DEWPTS WL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE /UPR 60S TO NEAR 70/.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FFA TODAY DCZ001
MD...FFA TODAY MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011.
VA...FFA TODAY VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056.
WV...FFA TODAY WVZ048>055.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...HTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1127 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-280800-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1127 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
OF UP TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREAMS...CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED