Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
330 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

SHORT TERM...TNGT/FRI...

ITS BECOME SOMEWHAT HECTIC DURG THE PAST HR HERE DUE TO WATCH
ISSUANCE. CELLS ALREADY DVLPG ALL OVR THE RDR SCREEN. OBVIOUSLY
GIVEN HIGH PWAL TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HVY RAINFALL. SAVING
GRACE COULD BE THAT THERE IS SOME MVMT TO THE ATMOSPHERE...AND IT
WOULD TAKE TRAINING TO PRODUCE FLDG.

THINK THERE WL BE SOME FOG ONCE AGN TNGT..ALTHOUGH NOT SURE IT WL BE
AS DENSE AS IT WAS IN SPOTS THIS MRNG AS WIND COULD STAY UP 5-7 KTS
FM W OVRNGT.

AIR MASS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHGD ON FRI...AND WE MAY GET TO DO
THIS ALL OVER AGN TMRW...

WOODY

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL RETROGRADE
INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL PULL
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND TN VALLEY AND STALL...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN
FOR FATHERS DAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW FLOW FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAKE UP RESIDENCY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AS A BERMUDA HIGH. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND TN VALLEY DURING THIS
TIME. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING BACK HOT AND HUMID SUMMER LIKE AIR WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH...KEPT POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY. THESE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER PERIODS.

WE WENT AT OR ABOVE BOTH THE GFS AND ETA MOS. WE PRIMARILY DID THIS
BECAUSE THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERLY AGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONTS
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LATER NEXT WEEK.

KELLS/REGA

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...SVR TSTM WATCH 488 TIL 9 PM.
MD...SVR TSTM WATCH 488 TIL 9 PM MDC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-
017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-03 7-039-041-043-045-047-510.
VA...TIL 9M NRN VA.
WV...TIL 9M WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065.
MARINE...SVR TSTM WTCH TIL 9PM PTMC AND NRN CHES BAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1129 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-180800-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
1129 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THE EXTREME
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...PENNY SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
221 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

MDZ004-005-009-010-172010-
CARROLL MD-FREDERICK MD-HOWARD MD-MONTGOMERY MD-
221 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

AT 2:10 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BUCKEYSTOWN IN FREDERICK COUTY MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH. PEOPLE
TRAVELLING ALONG AND SOUTH ONF INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM. PEOPLE CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

MDZ007-172127-
HARFORD MD-
332 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO HARFORD COUNTY...

AT 3:30 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BENTLEY SPRINGS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE IN JARRETSVILLE...SCARBORO IN NORTHERN
HARFORD COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. PEOPLE SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

ROSA