Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE TRANSLATING SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT 18Z THE DRYLINE
WAS LOCATED WEST OF CHILDRESS...TO SOUTHWEST OF TAHOKA...THEN SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO HOBBS. RUC AND GFS MOVE DRYLINE WELL EAST OF THE FA
THIS EVENING WHILE THE ETA HOLDS IT BACK TO THE WEST NEAR LUBBOCK.
FOR NOW WILL COMPROMISE ON POSITION AND KEEP IT ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING...THEN IS SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE CWFA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TONIGHT AND WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE RETAINED 20 PERCENT POPS FROM
NEAR BROWNFIELD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...IF THE CAP
CAN BE BROKEN.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO TRANSLATED EAST OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...TO
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FA EARLY TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FLOWING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AS THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  XI.

.LONG TERM...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY
DIVERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SLOWER
SOLUTION MORE READILY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE AND IS THUS MORE
REALISTIC.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. ON WED AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THU.
CUTOFF LOW WILL GAIN SPEED ON FRI AS DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.  COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED/WED EVENING.
DRYLINE WILL MIX OFF OF THE CAPROCK WED AFTERNOON THEN RETREAT BACK
WEST NEAR THE NM STATE LINE WED NIGHT.  PROVIDED SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A FEW CU MAY BREAK THROUGH STRONG CAP...ALLOWING
TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY WED
EVENING.  ALTHOUGH DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN UP NICELY ON THU...
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX EAST VERY FAR DUE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW
HELPING TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACKED.  SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
BOTH WED AND THU DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND MODERATE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS DRYLINE MIXES EAST
OF FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH ITS QUITE FAR OUT...A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TSRA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.  JH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       55  87  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA        60  88  58  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW    62  88  62  92 /  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND    64  90  63  92 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK      64  90  63  92 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD   64  91  63  93 /  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    66  88  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
SPUR         66  91  65  93 /  20  10  10  20
ASPERMONT    68  94  67  94 /  20  10  10  20
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

TXZ021>044-251630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CHILDRESS
TO NEAR TAHOKA.

THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO HALT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND RETREAT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WIND BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN ORDER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

TXZ025-026-031-032-250200-
CHILDRESS-COTTLE-HALL-MOTLEY-
410 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHILDRESS...
COTTLE...HALL AND MOTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CHILDRESS...PADUCAH...MEMPHIS AND
MATADOR.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.