Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH OF THE SPLNS HAVE SLOWLY CLEARED OUT AFTER THE MORNING
CLOUDS/SCT STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE SE COUNTIES ARE FILLING IN WITH
LOW CLOUDS AGAIN AFTER SEEING SOME SUN WITH TEMPS GETTING TO AROUND
80. 18Z RUC FCST SNDGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE SRN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVE. WITH THE BL ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS STABILIZED BY THE MORNING CONVECTION...NOT SURE WHETHER IT
CAN RECOVER IN TIME FOR ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION THIS EVE. WILL
WATCH CAREFULLY AS STORM DVLPMNT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND SWEETWATER...FCST CAPES ARE PRETTY HIGH IN THIS AREA IF THEY
CAN CONTINUE TO HEAT UP.

SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN WNW FLOW
ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL US. AS WE FOUND OUT THIS MORNING...TIMING
AND PATH OF THESE SMALLER WAVES CAN BE TRICKY. ONE SUCH WAVE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. SAT SHOWS CONVECTION
IS STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS THE NM MTNS AGAIN. FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE WAVE...INCREASED LLJ AND WEAK ISEN LIFT...KEEPING A
CHC OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY FILLED IN
AROUND MIDNIGHT YSDY...DID NOT GO WITH QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THEM
TONIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY MAY SEE SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK...SOCKED IN BY SUN MORNING FOR A WHILE. IT LOOKS LIKE
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW BEHIND SHTWV WILL INDUCE A LEE-SIDE
TROF STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE WRN SPLNS THUS INCREASE SRLY
WINDS...REDUCING ATMOS MOISTURE A BIT AND AIDING TO WARM THE SPLNS
UP.  WE MAY SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN 16 DAYS AT LBB IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT LAST VERY LONG. ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO PIN DOWN
CONVECTIVE CHCS...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND A BIT OF TROFFINESS
LINGERING OVER THE AREA...SCT TSTM DVLPMNT DURING THE LATE AFTN
LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WILL FINALLY BEGIN MOVING
EASTWARD RESULTING IN A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE LOWER 48 EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM EASTERN CANADA ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEST TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE TYPICAL AUGUST
WEATHER WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A S/SW LOW LEVEL WIND...SO 90 DEGREE DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL LIKELY RETURN. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT MAY BEGIN TO SEE STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID
LEVEL CAP WHICH WILL MAKE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HARDER TO COME BY.
ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.
GFS DOES BRING SOME SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER WEST TEXAS MID WEEK
WITH MINOR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH WITH DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. FLOW IS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN TOWARD THE END OF THE 7 DAY FCST PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       61  87  62  91 /  30  10  20  10
TULIA        62  88  66  91 /  30  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW    63  88  66  92 /  30  10  20  10
LEVELLAND    64  90  65  93 /  30  10  20  10
LUBBOCK      64  90  66  93 /  30  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD   66  90  67  94 /  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS    66  91  69  94 /  30  20  20  10
SPUR         67  91  69  94 /  30  20  20  10
ASPERMONT    68  91  70  94 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

33/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
558 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

CORRECTED SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

TXZ021>044-221100-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
558 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE
60S...MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABLITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS RESULTING IN
LESS ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABLILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT...THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THAT APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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