Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEMPS/POPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT TUE JUL  6 2004

.SHORT TERM...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY LAST NIGHTS MCS MOVED INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN LATE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER BOUNDARY...SEEN ON SATELLITE AND
88D RADAR AT 18Z HAS BEEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLANS FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR MORTON TO JUST
NORTH OF LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE
BOUNDARIES TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. WITH
GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AN MCS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. HAVE
THUS CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF SEVERE
IN ZONES AND GRIDS. FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
AND HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
GFS GIVING INDICATION THAT CONVECTION ALONG FRONT RANGE OF NM MAY
ORGANIZE AND MOVE SE INTO THE AREA WED EVE/OVERNITE. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
A SLGT CHC WARRANTED AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS NE A BIT AND NW FLOW
WEAKENS. BY THU...UPR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A
SFC TROF FORMING FROM E CO INTO E NM. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD
ON THU EXPECT WARM MID-LVLS TO CAP CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR IN VICINITY
NM MTNS AND THE SFC TROF. IF TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN E NM THEY MAY
SLOWLY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVE BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET...TRIMMED BACK POPS INTO THE WRN COUNTIES
FOR THU. BY FRI...ECMWF/GFS SHOW A WEAK SHTWV MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL TAP INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SHOULD INDUCE SCT CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM BUT UNCERTAIN IF CAP CAN BE
OVERCOME AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SPLNS. SCALED BACK POPS FRI AFTN/EVE TO
THE NW COUNTIES... AGAIN IN VICINITY OF SFC TROF.

BY THE WEEKEND WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO NM AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO OVER
THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF REALLY SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL NM. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS TO EVOLUTION OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE THAT THE GFS MOVES FROM THE WRN GOM INTO CENTRAL TX BY
LATE SAT. ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE WAVE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE POPS FRO THE SPLNS...BUT IT MAY HAVE AN EFFECT
ON CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/COOLER
COLUMN. MAINTAINED HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH VERY LOW POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       64  91  65  94 /  60  20  20  20
TULIA        65  91  67  95 /  60  10  30  10
PLAINVIEW    67  91  68  95 /  60  10  20  10
LEVELLAND    67  94  66  96 /  60  10  20  20
LUBBOCK      67  93  69  96 /  60  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD   69  95  67  97 /  60  10  20  10
CHILDRESS    68  91  72  97 /  60  20  30  10
SPUR         70  92  71  97 /  60  20  20  10
ASPERMONT    71  93  73  96 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

08/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1043 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

TXZ021>044-080430-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1043 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED OVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A PADUCAH TO ABERNATHY TO MORTON
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. AS THIS CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES ORGANIZED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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