Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COOL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY FORMING AT 230
PM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONSIDER
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE INSTABILITY IS
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT APPEAR TO LACK FOCUSING
MECHANISM AT THE MOMENT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THUS WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  FOR SATURDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL HAVE TO
SEE IF BOUNDARIES ARE LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHTS STORMS WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE WHERE STORMS WILL FORM.

.LONG TERM...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGE TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATE SUNDAY AS
A LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BE
OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH. THE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       62  87  61  93 /  60  20  30  20
TULIA        64  88  64  93 /  70  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW    66  90  65  94 /  50  20  20  20
LEVELLAND    66  93  64  95 /  40  10  20  20
LUBBOCK      68  92  65  95 /  40  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD   70  95  66  96 /  30  10  20  20
CHILDRESS    68  88  68  94 /  70  30  20  10
SPUR         71  93  69  96 /  40  20  20  10
ASPERMONT    73  95  70  96 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

04/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

TXZ021>044-190443-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1146 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 90S. WHILE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM ANYWHERE IN THE
REGION...A BOUNDARY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT MAY HELP INCREASE THE THREAT OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM GUTHRIE TO SILVERTON...TULIA...AND DIMMITT.  STORMS WHICH
DO FORM SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH WILL MOVE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

TXZ021>038-190300-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-MOTLEY-PARMER-SWISHER-
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...BAILEY...
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...COTTLE...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...
LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...AND KING

SOME COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE WATCH INCLUDE...
FRIONA...DIMMITT...TULIA...SILVERTON...MEMPHIS...CHILDRESS...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...MATADOR...PADUCAH...
MORTON...LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...CROSBYTON...DICKENS...AND GUTHRIE.

HAIL UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF DALHART TEXAS TO 25 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

JW

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