Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
950 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH. ALSO MADE CHANGES
TO POPS AND SKY CONDITION TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AS RIDGE BUILD WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED
ACROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE 50S NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S TO THE EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AT 18Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DRIVE THESE STORMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WITH A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILE SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF POPS TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST
AND LOWEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY TO BE FURTHER NORTH THEN
TODAY...HAVE THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES DURING
LATE AFTERNOON. JV/08

.LONG TERM...
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD PINCH OFF HIGH LEVEL PLUME SLIGHTLY AND PUSH IT A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST...THOUGH WITH MORE WEST COMPONENT ALOFT LIKELY
WILL STILL SEE REMNANT PLUME HOLDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OFTEN DELAYED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS MAY FINALLY ARRIVE
BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH HELP OF OUTFLOW AGAIN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. BUT BOUNDARY ALSO LIKELY TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
UNDER THE FLAT RIDGE. BOUNDARY ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO RETAIN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AIRMASS...HOWEVER...FAVORS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA. VERY
MINOR CHANGES TO EARLIER GRIDS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE MCS
FROM PANHANDLE DRIFTS SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS ROLLING PLAINS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN GENERAL SEEMS BEST BET MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST TROF LINGERING THAT REGION...THOUGH SEEMS LESS LIKELY
THAN GFS TO DIG AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED
ABOUT SOUTHWEST COMPONENT REDEVELOPING. PATTERN WOULD FAVOR DRY LINE
MAINLY WELL WEST OF THE AREA EACH DAY WITH MINIMAL OR ZERO RAIN
CHANCES. CANT RULE OUT A RIPPLE OR TWO PERHAPS ENERGIZING A FEW
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF ANY
PARTICULAR DAY(S) THAT MAY OCCUR. BACKED WINDS NOTICABLY FROM GFS
WIND FIELD IN ORDER TO MATCH GENERALLY PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND ALSO RETAINED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.   MCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

TXZ021>044-181100-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
600 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MODE WILL INITIALLY BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH
THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE LATE IN THE
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREATE
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO FAVORABLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR PROFILES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS.

06/02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
723 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             CAPROCK CANYON ST. PARK 34.45N 101.07W
06/17/2004  0.88 INCH        BRISCOE            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
750 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     DOWNBURST        3 S DICKENS             33.58N 100.84W
06/17/2004                   DICKENS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN...VERY STRONG WIND

0727 PM     HAIL             W QUITAQUE              34.37N 101.05W
06/17/2004  1.00 INCH        BRISCOE            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            JUST WEST OF QUITAQUE

0610 PM     DOWNBURST        7 E SILVERTON           34.47N 101.18W
06/17/2004                   BRISCOE            TX   MESONET

            64 MPH WIND GUST

&&

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
928 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ODONNELL               32.97N 101.83W
06/17/2004                   LYNN               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORT FM1313...FM212 AND NEAR ODONNELL

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N CLAIREMONT          33.25N 100.75W
06/17/2004                   KENT               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODED ROADS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 208 AND FM2320

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N CLAIREMONT          33.17N 100.75W
06/17/2004                   KENT               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRAILER BLOWN OVER

0903 PM     HAIL             1 NE COTTON CENTER      33.99N 101.99W
06/17/2004  0.75 INCH        HALE               TX   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
936 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     HAIL             2 S HALE CENTER         34.04N 101.84W
06/17/2004  0.75 INCH        HALE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCATED AT MILE MARKER 35 ON I27

&&

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