Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WGUS74 KLUB 060454
FFSLBB
TXC069-279-060630-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CASTRO AND LAMB COUNTIES UNTIL
130 AM CDT...

AT 1145 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLOODED 
ROADS ACROSS LAMB AND CASTRO COUNTY.  

AT 1150 PM...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST 
AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS CASTRO AND LAMB COUNTIES. FLOODING WAS REPORTED 
IN THE CITY OF LITTLEFIELD AND ALONG HIGHWAY 54 BETWEEN BULA AND
LITTLEFIELD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ONE HALF TO ONE INCH CAN BE 
EXPECTED THROUGH 130 AM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE THE 
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
LUBBOCK.

LAT...LON 3475 10250 3434 10253 3430 10258 3385 10259
      3385 10211 3429 10210 3433 10202 3475 10202

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

.SHORT TERM...
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA HAS SEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
TODAY SO THIS AREA IS PRIMED FOR FLOODING TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE A LARGE AREA
OF LIFT MOVING OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EVEN EASTERN CWA
BY MORNING THEN LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OF SOME CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CAN THIS AID THE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE THEN MOVE UP OVER OUR CWA. A TEXAS TECH
WEST TEXAS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS UNSTABLE ABOVE THE MORNING INVERSION. WITH THIS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A ELEVATED HAIL THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.

EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOMORROW AS WE STRUGGLE
TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...
ETA NOW MORE IN LINE WITH GFS...MOVING UPPER LEVEL THROUGH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. THEY BOTH DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL THUS CONTINUE LIKELY
TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL DECREASE POPS FRIDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BACK SIDE OF
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ALL MODELS FASTER THEN GFS...CANADIAN IS THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER
THEY GENERALLY KEEP UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TXZ021>TXZ044

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       53  64  53  68 / 100 100  60  40
TULIA        53  64  55  69 / 100 100  70  50
PLAINVIEW    55  65  56  70 / 100 100  60  50
LEVELLAND    56  67  56  70 / 100  90  60  40
LUBBOCK      58  68  57  71 / 100  90  60  50
BROWNFIELD   58  68  58  71 / 100  80  60  40
CHILDRESS    58  66  59  71 / 100  90  70  60
SPUR         60  69  59  72 / 100  80  70  60
ASPERMONT    62  70  61  73 / 100  80  60  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

18/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
555 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

TXZ021>044-061100-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
555 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT. RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN NEARLY
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RUNOFF AND FLOODING. FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER
TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING...WMO ID WGUS64 KLUB...ISSUED
BY THIS OFFICE AT 400 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ROLLING PLAINS AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
STORM SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY ENOUGH
RAINFALL RATES FOR FLOODING MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATER.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS OR AROUND POLICE
BARRICADES. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

TXZ039-060400-
YOAKUM-
650 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 852 FOR
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 11 PM CDT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

YOAKUM.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF...
PLAINS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.