Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME DEALS WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE
SHORT TERM MODELS AT THIS TIME...SO GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE TWO.  USED 00Z GFS FOR THE EXTEND PART OF FORECAST AS IT SEEMS
TO FALL IN THE MIDDLE OF DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.  MOS TEMPERATURES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER SERN NE/SWRN
IA AT THIS TIME.  EXPECT CONTINUED BKN LN OF TSRA TO DEVELOP SWD ALG
THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE SWD INTO WRN MO.  THINK THAT
CAPES WILL BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WHEN THE TSRA MOVES INTO
CNTRL MO AROUND 02-03Z...AND 500-1000 J/KG BY THE TIME THE MAKE IT
TO THE MS RIVER AROUND 04-06Z.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT
MAIN THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-55KTS) EVOLVING
INTO BOWING SEGMENTS AS FORECAST HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME.  AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS A CONCERN FOR SOME
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK EARLY AS 0-1KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
30-40KTS. THINK THREAT FOR SVR WILL RAPILY DECLINE OVER IL COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DECREASING INSTABILITY.

FRONT CLEARS CWA BY MORNING...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND.  TOMORROW CERTAINLY WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH UNDIRECTIONAL
FLOW HELPING TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE 35-40KT 850MB WINDS.  ALSO
SHOULD SEE BKN CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE NORTH GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTHWARD.  WENT WITH LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY IN THE S AND E
AS FIRST SHORWAVE EJECTS OUT OF SWRN CONUS TROUGH.  ALSO HAVE
CHANCES GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE
IL...NONE
&&

BRITT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
345 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-301100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
345 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM...
HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
744 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S LOUISIANA           39.40N 91.06W
10/29/2004                   PIKE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON COUNTY ROUTE D.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N HARDIN              39.27N 90.62W
10/29/2004                   CALHOUN            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON STATE HIGHWAY 100 BETWEEN KAMPSVILLE AND MICHAEL.
            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY. COMMERICAL POWER LOST IN ALL OF
            COUNTY...PARTIALLY RESTORED AT 610 PM.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE PLEASANT HILL      39.42N 90.85W
10/29/2004                   PIKE               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON STATE ROUTE 96 NEAR PEA RIDGE ELK FARM NEAR BAY CREEK.
            POWER LINES DOWN...TREES DOWN.

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N HARDIN              39.17N 90.62W
10/29/2004                   CALHOUN            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 96.

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W CARROLLTON          39.30N 90.43W
10/29/2004                   GREENE             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN ON LONE OAK GOLF COURSE.

&&

WDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1004 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

MOC007-019-027-051-103-111-127-135-137-173-205-300330-
AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-RALLS-
SHELBY-
1004 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

...TORNADO WATCH 871 HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 871
TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT.  THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI ARE NO
LONGER IN A TORNADO WATCH...

AUDRAIN           BOONE            CALLAWAY
COLE              KNOX             LEWIS
MARION            MONITEAU         MONROE
RALLS             SHELBY

ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED.  GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
PEA SIZED HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

TES