Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
130 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MCS IN WRN MO IN DRFTING S OR SE WITH THE 1000-500 THICKENSS PTN.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDELOP WITH NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDY ACRS SRN MO LATER
TODAY.

UPPER TROF WILL BE WEST OF MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE UNSTABLE AMS ACRS MISSOURI WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ALMOST EVERY PD THIS WEEK.  BY SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE SOME
MOISTER WILL BE BLOCKED FROM THE GULF INTO TTHE MIDWEST...I AM NOT
RULING ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINLY
AFTER A CHC FOR ALMOST EVERY DAY APPEAR TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS FCST WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST OF THE TIME...BY WED AND THURSDAY
SW FLW WILL PUSH TEMPS FEW DGRS HIGHER TO NEAR 90.  THE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S.  DONT SEE ANY EXTREME TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

ILZ058-059-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>052-
059>065-072-073-251200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-
FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-
MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-ST CLAIR IL-ST LOUIS-
ST LOUIS CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON-
1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO REDEVELOP
OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER...HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAIN
INTO BI-STATE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND  DRIER AIR MASS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ060-064-065-069-070-074-079-MOZ074-075-084-085-099-251200-
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-IRON-MADISON-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST FRANCOIS-STE GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON IL-
1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAIN
INTO BI-STATE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BRITT