Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

CLOSED H5 LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND SWING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FLOW PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW WAS SITUATED
OVER TX. UNDER THE EXPECTED UPPER FLOW PATTERN, EXPECT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE
MCS SEASON IS OPEN.

UPPER JET OF 75 KTS WAS SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ INTO NM THIS
MORNING. THE ETA, GFS, NGM AND UKMET ALL FORECAST A JET STREAK OF 80
KTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER JET
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE GFS IS ONLY MODEL OF THE 4 THAT
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT IT FORECASTS A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE JET COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO AFFECT MO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-70. THE GFS AND ETA BOTH
STRONGLY HINT AT YET ANOTHER MCS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.

THE 850 MOISTURE WAS POOLED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MO INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE 10 KM WRF MODEL OUT OF NCAR APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO SOUTHERN MO BETTER THAN THE 4 KM
WRF.  THE 10 KM WRF MODEL FORECASTS A MCS ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS/SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHWEST MO BY THIS EVENING WITH SYSTEM EXPANDING
AND ROLLING ACROSS NORTH MO INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM WEAKENS DURING THE MORNING WHICH IS THE TYPICAL
LIFE CYCLE. MODEL THEN FORECASTS ANOTHERN MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO
.IL...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR WEST CENTRAL IL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>050-131000-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-
MONITEAU-MONROE-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT.  ALSO THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. A COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING....AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HEAVY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...ALONG WITH MIGRATING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSTABLE SUMMERTIME AIRMASS...AND A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ051-052-059>065-
072>075-084-085-099-131000-
BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
REYNOLDS-ST CHARLES-ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-
STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
A COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...ALONG WITH MIGRATING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSTABLE SUMMERTIME AIRMASS...AND A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.