Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PST THU APR 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER INTEREST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ETA ARE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT, BUT THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND COLDER AND NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS THE ETA.
EITHER WAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRI-SAT.
WHETHER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS DRIFTS OVER INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION IS REALLY TOUGH TO CALL. WERE GOING TO
LEAVE THOSE AREAS OUT OF THE ACTION FOR NOW, BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN
REVISE THIS IF THE ETA APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

MARINE LYR UP TO ALMOST 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THE INVERSION
IS GETTING EXTREMELY WEAK. BUT SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE STUCK IT OUT
THIS AFTERNOON, THEY WILL LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE BREAKING UP. IN THE MEANTIME, IVE ADDED IN
SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE DEEP MARINE LYR AND PVA ALOFT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
WETNESS AT THE SURFACE. ON RARE OCCASIONS THESE MARINE LYR SHOWERS
CAN BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS,
BUT WILL LEAVE POPS OUT FOR NOW. IF WE DO GET MEASURABLE, THE AREAS
USUALLY AT GREATEST RISK ARE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS.

WINDS KICKED UP TO ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY. THESE SHOULD START TO DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT OVER THE SBA MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SOME PRETTY GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THERE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY EXTENDING EAST INTO VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THERE.

ANOTHER COOL DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS BEING THE
CENTRAL COAST, WHERE A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THERE SAT.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL WARM THINGS UP SLIGHTLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A VERY WEAK TROF LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS STILL QUITE
LOW. WITH GRADIENTS GENERALLY STAYING ONSHORE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL, WE SHOULD SEE THE MARINE LYR RETURNING IN
MOST AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

WOFFORD