Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 PM PST SUN FEB 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WINTERSTORM WARNING AND
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE ISSUED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AND MARINE STATEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN PAC TUE AND MOVES OVER THE AREA WED THROUGH THU. IN THE
MEANTIME LATEST GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL WITH TROUGH AXIS CENTERED
OVER THE AREA AND MINOR SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
UPSTREAM CROSSING 130W. MOISTURE WAS CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PAC PROGESSES EAST.
WITH CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUNDING AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA
SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
TAPER OFF AS STABILITY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE
AREA. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY OVER SLO COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
PICTURES FROM SPACE INDICATED PVA MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH RAIN ESTIMATES OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH AN
HOUR SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PATTERN
UPSTREAM PROGESSING EAST THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM CROSSING 130W WILL
SKIRT THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA TUE AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES 150W
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
UPSTREAM BECOMES WESTERLY AND 120KT JET ACCELERATES THE REMNANTS OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TUE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS THE LATEST GFS INDICATED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY 140 MILES OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AT H+72. THOUGH WITH STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PAC SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ACCELERATE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE SOUTH OVER
FA WED. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WED AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY ACCELERATES
OVER THE AREA AND FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...RAIN WILL CONTINUE THU THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...DIMINISHING RUNOFF RATES.
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UPSTREAM FRI AND HAVE
GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF THE POPS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THOUGH REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BURN AREAS (SEE LAXFLSLOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (SEE LAXESFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
FLOOD ADVISORY SMALL STREAM AND CREEK (SEE LAXFLSLOS).

&&

FORWOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2004

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-231400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

PERIODS OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL TURN TO SHOWERS THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT...THEN SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
RAINFALL RATES COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THE BURN AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...AND MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND GUSTY WINDS...
WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH LOCAL TOTALS
OF THREE FEET OR MORE POSSIBLE.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND
INTENSE RAINS TO THE SOUTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH SOILS WET FROM THIS WEEKENDS RAIN...RUNOFF AND MUDSLIDES IN AND
BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM. IN
ADDITION...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHLAND BEACHES...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS
SURF...RIPTIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING. ALSO...STRONG WINDS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WIND ADVISORIES FOR LAND AREAS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES OR GALE WARNINGS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BRUNO