Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
540 AM PST WED DEC 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS STILL CENTERED
OFFSHORE OF SRN CA THIS MORNING. IMPULSES FROM THIS STORM HAVE
PRODUCED RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH NEAR 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES AND OVER A FOOT OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THREE FEET OR MORE OF SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED.
ENOUGH SNOW FELL ON THE GRAPEVINE LAST NIGHT TO WARRANT CLOSURE OF
THE I5. ALSO LAST NIGHT...AS ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVED
ONSH0RE...A SEVERE STORM WITH A TORNADO TOPPLED TREES AND REMOVED
ROOF TOPS FROM HOMES IN THE INGLEWOOD AREA.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND WINDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE BURN AREAS
OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...INCLUDING THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOK FOR GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN REMAINING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 4000 TO 5000 FT LEVEL...LOWER ON
THE NORTH FACING INTERIOR SLOPES...THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY TO OVER 7000 FEET IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC STORM. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...
BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD END BY AROUND MID DAY.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS
STORM SHOULD STAY OVER THE PACNW. THE TROUGH FROM THIS STORM CENTER
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH FROM
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...PUTTING US IN A DRIER
PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. CANNOT CALL IT CLEAR AND DRY...BUT WE HAVE
DROPPED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.

EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
ANOTHER STORM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG EAST WINDS NO LONGER EXPECTED AT LAX.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX)
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXFLSLOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX)
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (LAXCFWLOX)

&&

DANIELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST WED DEC 29 2004

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-301400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST WED DEC 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS STILL CENTERED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. EARLIER...IMPULSES FROM THIS STORM HAVE PRODUCED RECORD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH NEAR 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN DOWNTOWN LOS
ANGELES AND OVER A FOOT OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THREE FEET OR MORE OF SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED. ENOUGH SNOW
FELL ON THE GRAPEVINE LAST NIGHT TO WARRANT CLOSURE OF THE I5. ALSO
LAST NIGHT...AS ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVED ONSH0RE...A
SEVERE STORM WITH A TORNADO TOPPLED TREES AND REMOVED ROOF TOPS FROM
HOMES IN THE INGLEWOOD AREA.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND WINDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE BURN AREAS
OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...INCLUDING THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY...BUT INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY.

HIGH SURF COMBINED WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE THIS MORNING WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATER TODAY.

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING........SEE WGUS56 KLOX - FFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* COASTAL FLOOD WATCH........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD ADVISORY.............SEE WGUS86 KLOX - FLSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING US SHOWERS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY...BUT
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WET
PACIFIC STORM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DANIELSON