Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST MON DEC 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 35.5N/128W IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS
FORECAST TO STAY PUT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...FUNNELING CONSIDERABLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

00Z ETA CONTINUES THE THINKING OF 12Z MDLS IN THE BIG DETAILS BUT AS
USUAL THERE ARE MANY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE STORM IS PROGRESSING WELL.

LOBES OF PVA BEGIN TO POUND THE AREA IN EARNEST ABOUT NOW AND PEAKS AT
NOON TUESDAY THEN PEAKS AGAIN AT 09Z WED. THESE LOBES ARE EMBEDDED IN
A VERY MOIST SOUTH FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTH FLOW
WILL QUITE LIKELY CREATE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTH FACING
COASTAL SLOPES. JET DYNAMICS START OVER SBA TO LA COUNTIES AROUND 12Z
TUE AND THEN PEAKS OVER VENTURA COUNTY AT 18Z AND LA COUNTY AT 21Z.
LIS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS -2 INSTEAD OF -4 BUT STILL
THINK TSRA ARE A GOOD SHOT. AS THE MAIN MOISTURE BAND PASSES THROUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE LULL IN THE ACTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THEN
THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ARRIVING AT POINT
CONCEPTION BY 15Z AND PRODUCIGN MAXIMUM SOUTH WINDS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY RAIN.

SFC LOW MOVES OUT DURING WEDNESDAY AND THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL
END BUT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN ITS COLD WAKE.

.LONG TERM...(FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
LONG TERM GFS STILL INDICATING A BROAD AND MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...SO WILL KEEP A THREAT OF RAIN
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

.AVIATION...
LAX STILL FACING A LONG DURATION STRONG EAST WIND EVENT. ETA SUGGESTS
WINDS 09020KT FROM 12Z TO 20Z...THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
TSRA. WINDS SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ARE FOERCAST EAST
AGAIN 09Z-15Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX)
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX)
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXFLSLOX)
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXSPSLOX)
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXMWSLOX)

&&

RORKE/GOMBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST MON DEC 27 2004

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-281400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST MON DEC 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM CURRENTLY 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING TODAY AND TUESDAY. THIS STORM
WILL PROUDCE A MULTITUDE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THE DEEP SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA MOUNTAINS...WIND ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ALL OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY INCLUDING THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE FLAT TERRAIN WHILE UP TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ALL MANOR OF HAZARDS FOR THE MARINE INTERESTS
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...THESE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE A LARGE SHORT PERIOD SWELL WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCAL
COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL AS AN HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY WILL HAVE ALL OF THE SAME HAZARDS FORECAST TODAY...AS WELL
AS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE AS LOW AS 6000 FEET. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREAS STARTING FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RORKE