Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PDT TUE OCT 19 2004

.SHORT TERM...
POWERFUL STORM MOVING AHEAD ON SCHEDULE WITH HEAVY RAIN REPORTED AS
FAR SOUTH AS SBA COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES, THOUGH
THE MAIN RAIN BAND WONT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST LATER THIS EVENING IN
THOSE COUNTIES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
1-3 ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS AND 3-6 IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS
GOOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING IN ERN LA
COUNTY AS THE FRONT STALLS THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IF THIS HAPPENS, RAINFALL THERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, COULD
EXCEED 6 INCHES FOR A STORM TOTAL. IN ANY CASE, FLOOD WATCHES FOR
THE BURN AREAS CERTAINLY WELL JUSTIFIED AS HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
AROUND 1 INCH HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED UP IN SLO COUNTY EARLIER
TODAY.

MAIN ADDITION TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. GRADIENTS IN EXCESS OF 12 MB
FROM LAX-SFO A GOOD INDICATOR THAT WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT IN THE MTNS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT AS
MENTIONED, IT LOOKS LIKE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF LA COUNTY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN JUST
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO
SIGNS OF ANY REAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT JUST YET SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDERSTORMS. MAY GET ONE OR TWO WITH THE
FRONT THOUGH.

18Z ETA TAKES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT, THE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MINIMAL. WILL STILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS LOOK
DRY FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY, BUT THE GFS SHOWS A VERY SLOW
MOVING FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA LATER SAT AND SUNDAY
AND INTO LA COUNTY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT ALSO HAS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH IT WHICH WOULD BODE WELL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP. NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT WITH THE TIMING THOUGH AND FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW POPS AND WAIT
FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO NARROW THIS DOWN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS (SEE LAXFFALOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

WOFFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PDT TUE OCT 19 2004

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-201300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PDT TUE OCT 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING.  RAINFALL
RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL RATES
COULD WELL CAUSE FLOODING OR DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN AREAS. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE BURN AREAS OF SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY EFFECTIVE FROM 3 PM TODAY UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR THE BURN AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES BEGINNING AT
8 PM TODAY UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH
STATEMENT FROM LOS ANGELES/OXNARD /WGUS66 KLOX FFALOX/ FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

SURF WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TO THIRTEEN FEET
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FROM LOS ANGELES/OXNARD /WHUS46 KLOX CFWLOX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LOS
ANGELES/OXNARD /WWUS 86 KLOX SPSLOX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WATCH STATEMENT FROM LOS ANGELES/OXNARD /WGUS66 KLOX FFALOX/ FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
THROUGH THURSDAY...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM LOS
ANGELES/OXNARD /WHUS46 KLOX CFWLOX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING THE PEAK OF THE
STORM...BUT WILL LOWER TO RESORT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONSEQUENTLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ONLY BE ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE DOWN TO 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LOS ANGELES/OXNARD /WWUS 86 KLOX SPSLOX/
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FORWOOD