Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN A BAND ALONG AND BHD LAKE ENHANCED COLD
FRONT.  AT 1730 Z...THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED W OF RFD...NR KFEP-TO NR
KPNT. LIFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO LOWER END OF MVFR RANGE FROM NE TO SW
DURG ERLY AFTN.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL LIFTING IN CIG BASE EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTN OR MORE LIKELY ERLY THIS EVENING AS FRONT SAGS FUTHER TO S
OF TERMINAL AREA AND DUE TO EFFECTS OF CONTINUED LO LVL DRYING.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO 020-060 DEG...AND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS UPPER
LAKES.  AS HI PRES CONTS TO MOVE OFF TO E OVERNGT AND ERLY WED...LGT
WINDS...GENLY UNDER 10 KTS...WILL GRDLY TURN MORE ELY TO ESELY.

VIS IN IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ZONE STILL IN 1-3 SM RANGE DUE TO
FOG...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY BE IMPROVING...IF IT HASNT ALREADY...TO
UNRESTRICTED ACRS ENTR AREA BY 20Z.

SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPG OVR CNTRL IL ARE FCST...FOR THE MOST PART...
TO DSIPT AS THEY ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR OVR NERN IL AND EXTRM
NWRN IN.

PROVIDED LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS AS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...ONLY HIGH
CLDS FOR LATER PORTION OF TAFS...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
BR/HZ IN LATER ISSUANCES.

MERZLOCK

&&

.PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS:

AT 11P FRONT NR MKE-MKIL-MKC SAGGING S. LN TS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
FRONT MOVG E WITH BACK EDGE OVER E IA. LINE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF JET PASSING TO OUR N. VAPOR PIC WOUD SEEM TO INDICATE VORT LOBE
OVER ABOUT C IA PUSHING THE TS LINE EAST.

RELIATIVEY FAST FLOW OVER N U.S. AND MODELS HAVE VERY NOISY 500
PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE THE VORT EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER
LAKE TONIGHT FOR S COUNTIES.

LOOKS LIKE AFTER TODAY RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AS FLOW DRIFTS BACK N TO
BORDER. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THRU FLOW ON THURSDAY TO N OF
AREA. MAIN THING IS GRADUALLY BUILDING OF 588 HEIGHT LN OVER S
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY INDICATING BUILDING HEAT TO S. LOOKS LIKE
POTENTIAL VERY STORMY RING OF FIRE PATTERN TO SETUP OVERHEAD ON N
FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE  THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GENERAL TROF FROM W MOVES IN OVER WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD BEGINING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL MODELS LOOK LITTLE SLOW ON RH PATTERN AT 06Z SO WILL SPEED
THINGS UP IN FORECAST. WILL TRND TOWARD FASTER ETA RATHER THAN THE
GFS.

FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED AS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY TS TO BE OUT OF
WATCH AREA BY 4 AM ZONE TIME. EXISTING FLOOD WARNINGS WILL STILL RUN
TIL EXPIRATION AS THERE STIL WILL BE LEFT OVER WATER TO CONTEND
WITH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAJOR CHALLANGE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRONT MOVES
BACK AND FORTH OVER AREA AND ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDRIES TO MESS THINGS
UP.

AF

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LK MI...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-191100-
BENTON-BOONE-COOK-DE KALB-DU PAGE-FORD-GRUNDY-IROQUOIS-JASPER-
KANE-KANKAKEE-KENDALL-LA SALLE-LAKE-LAKE IN-LEE-LIVINGSTON-
MCHENRY-NEWTON-OGLE-PORTER-WILL-WINNEBAGO-
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
FORD...IROQUOIS...AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS ALONG WITH
BENTON....JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ALL
AREAS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT LATE TOMORROW AND
THEN WOBBLE AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY UNSTABLE AND HUMID
AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS BEGINNING LATE
TOMORROW AND THEN CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE STORMS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>746-766-191100-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY
ISLAND-NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-MICHIGAN CITY TO
NEW BUFFALO-LAKE MICHIGAN-
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  MORE
STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

NDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N MUNDELEIN           42.30N 88.00W
05/18/2004                   LAKE               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 45 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AT 137 BRIDGE.

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POPLAR GROVE            42.37N 88.82W
05/17/2004                   BOONE              IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

1010 PM     HAIL             POPLAR GROVE            42.37N 88.82W
05/17/2004  0.75 INCH        BOONE              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

ALLSOPP

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