Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
258 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS PM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTH ACROSS IL. EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE EVENING HRS. PLAN TO GO CAT POPS NORTHWEST CWA AND LIKELY REST
OF FA. THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURS AND
EXPECT A DRY PERIOD THURS MORNING INTO EARLY THURS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES THRU
THE REGION LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. NOT EXPECTING SVR WX
TONIGHT THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SVR WX...THOUGH
STILL ISOLATED...THURS EVENING. COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS THURS STILL IN THE 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH BUT HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LIKELY IN THE MORNING
NORTH 2/3 OF CWA THEN TURNING COLDER ALONG THE LAKE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY
BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NORMALS. WARM FRONT PUSHES
BACK NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GFS SHOWING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STAY DRY FOR NOW AND LET LATER RUNS
PIN DOWN TIMING AND LOCATION...BUT MONDAY NOW LOOKING MUCH WARMER
PROBABLY BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...
IN SHOFT TERM CONCERN IS GUSTY WINDS WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT ASSOC
WITH LOW OVER MN. CAVOK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT OF LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RELAX GRADIENT OVERNIGHT.

MDLS DEPICT WELL DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS IL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING/NIGHT. BASED ON UVV WITH THIS FEATURES BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE CENTERED FROM 03Z-07Z AND AS A RESULT HAVE
INTROD A TEMPO GROUPS WITH -TSRA DURING THAT PERIOD.

LOW ST S/SW STL FEEDING NORTHEAST INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
TO ADVECT NORTH TO TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE
PREV FORECAST TIMING ON THIS FEATURE AT 07Z.

CDFNT AND POSITION OF SURFACE LOW IN EARLY AM SUGGEST A CONTINUATION
OF MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LK MI...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
330 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-131100-
BENTON-BOONE-COOK-DE KALB-DU PAGE-FORD-GRUNDY-IROQUOIS-JASPER-
KANE-KANKAKEE-KENDALL-LA SALLE-LAKE-LAKE IN-LEE-LIVINGSTON-
MCHENRY-NEWTON-OGLE-PORTER-WILL-WINNEBAGO-
330 PM CDT (330 PM EST) WED MAY 12 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 39 THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEST OF INTERSTATE 39 TONIGHT.

&&

NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>746-766-131100-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
MICHIGAN CITY TO NEW BUFFALO-LAKE MICHIGAN-
330 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

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