Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WAITING FOR SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BEGIN. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME HEATING. STORMS ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST AND SHOULD MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. THOUGH AIRMASS IS WORKED OVER THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS.

RAINFALL AMOUNT IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES COVERED MOST OF AREA THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN PREVIOUS WEEKS ANTECEDANT CONDITIONS AND
TODAY/S HEAVY RAINS FLOOD WATCH APPEARS NECESSARY SINCE TONIGHT/S
STORMS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 00Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN LINE SHUD BE THRU RFD AT ONSET OF TERMINALS BTWEN
00Z AND 01Z AT DPA AND ORD...BY 02Z AT MDW...AND 03Z AT GYY. A
COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN WITH TSTMS VCNTY FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST THE
+TSRA LINE OF STORMS...THEN A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
VSBY AND VFR CIG TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. GOING VFR CIG AND VSBY AFTER
RAIN ENDS WITH WINDS SWITCHING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FROPA DUE
AROUND THAT TIME WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO WEST BY MRNG. SECONDARY
WAVE MOVING THRU MONDAY AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS CUD
PRODUCE SOME AFTN SHOWERS...PSBLY AN ISOLATED TSTM...BUT GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HOWEVER PICKING UP TO 25+ KTS BY AFTN WITH
PRETTY GOOD MIXING.

RLB

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LK MI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERN LK MI TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IMPORTANT NOTICE...EFFECTIVE JUNE 8...THE AWIPS IDENTIFIER FOR
THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM CHIAFDCHI TO CHIAFDLOT. THE WMO
HEADER FXUS63 KLOT WILL NOT CHANGE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019
-311100-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 10 PM CDT. A FLOOD WATCH
IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR THE SAME AREA.

HEATING FROM THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND SURGING DEWPOINTS ON STRONG
SOUTH WINDS HAS SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL WINDS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.
RAINFALL OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS
OCCURRING...COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO AGGRAVATE OR PROLONG ONGOING
STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>746-766-311100-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 10 PM CDT. THE MAIN THREAT
TO BOATERS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH SEAS AND LIGHTNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. THEN A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

CLK

ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ032-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ033-ILZ039-
INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019-310300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
718 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

ILZ003-004-008-010>012-019>021-032-310300-
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CLEARED A PORTION OF
TORNADO WATCH 339. COUNTIES CLEARED INCLUDE:

IN ILLINOIS:
BOONE...DE KALB...GRUNDY...KANE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...LEE...
LIVINGSTON...OGLE...WINNEBAGO...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AURORA...BELVIDERE...DE KALB...
DIXON...LA SALLE...MORRIS...OREGON...PONTIAC...ROCKFORD...
YORKVILLE...

ILZ005-006-013-014-022-023-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-310300-
TORNADO WATCH 339 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1000 PM CDT (1000 PM EST)
SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN ILLINOIS:
COOK...DU PAGE...FORD...IROQUOIS...KANKAKEE...LAKE...MCHENRY...
WILL...

IN INDIANA:
BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON...PORTER...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...FOWLER...GARY...
GIBSON CITY...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...MOROCCO...NAPERVILLE...
RENSSELAER...VALPARAISO...WATSEKA...WAUKEGAN...WOODSTOCK...

STEFKOVICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
724 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             2 S FOWLER              40.59N 87.32W
05/30/2004  0.88 INCH        BENTON             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED IN CHASE AREA

0658 PM     HAIL             ESSEX                   41.18N 88.19W
05/30/2004  1.75 INCH        KANKAKEE           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
728 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BATAVIA                 41.85N 88.30W
05/30/2004                   KANE               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

&&

WEN

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