Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Chicago, IL

000 
WGUS73 KLOT 202356
FFSLOT
ILC007-210230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
653 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BOONE COUNTY IN ILLINOIS UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOONE COUNTY. 
NATIONAL WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOONE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY 
BETWEEN BELVIDERE AND POPLAR GROVE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 
AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
TO THE EFFECTS OF FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED AREAS BY
FOOT OR AUTOMOBILE.

MOST DEATHS IN FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS IN WHICH WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. IT ONLY TAKES
TWO FEET OF WATER TO WASH MOST VEHICLES AWAY INCLUDING SUVS AND
PICKUPS. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATERS SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.

REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. STAY TUNED FOR
LATER STATEMENTS.

LAT...LON 4239 8890 4224 8890 4225 8873 4240 8873
$$

MARSILI

000 
WGUS73 KLOT 210023
FFSLOT
ILC007-210230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
720 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BOONE COUNTY IN ILLINOIS UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO FALL FROM NORTHEAST OF POPLAR GROVE...INTO 
FAR NORTHEAST BOONE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 
ESTIMATES UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN BETWEEN POPLAR GROVE AND 
BELVIDERE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 
COVERAGE AFTER 800 PM...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING 
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
TO THE EFFECTS OF FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED AREAS BY
FOOT OR AUTOMOBILE.

MOST DEATHS IN FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS IN WHICH WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. IT ONLY TAKES
TWO FEET OF WATER TO WASH MOST VEHICLES AWAY INCLUDING SUVS AND
PICKUPS. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATERS SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.

REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. STAY TUNED FOR
LATER STATEMENTS.

LAT...LON 4249 8874 4226 8874 4227 8886 4249 8889
$$

MARSILI

000 
WGUS73 KLOT 210042
FFSLOT
ILC007-210100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
741 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BOONE COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 741 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND TRAINED SPOTTERS 
INDICATED NO REPORTS OF FLOODING. NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS 
ANTICIPATED IN THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELED.

LAT...LON 4247 8873 4246 8891 4218 8888 4219 8873
$$

MARSILI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
240 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST NEXT TWO DAYS WITH THREAT OF PRECIP AND TEMPS
MAIN CONCERN. A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS AM AND A SHOWER JUST
RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE LK BREEZE. HOWEVER EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING TO BE ISOLATED AS VERY LITTLE FORCING TO GET ANYTHING
GOING. SO PLAN ON MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE WITH POSSIBLE MCS/DECAYING MCS MOVING INTO
NW IL TOWARD SUNRISE AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL THRU THE MORNING HRS.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS TREND HANDLE WELL AND NOT PLANNING MANY
CHANGES. WILL BACK OFF TO LOW POPS WED AFTERNOON AND WITH SOME
CLEARING AND WARMING CAN EASILY SEE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND VERY HUMID PERIOD SETTING UP AS
LOWS TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT ONLY LOWER 70S AND HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP
THURS TOWARD 90. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POSSIBLE MCS MAY ALLOW PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO HEAT UP WED PM BUT MAY ALSO HELP MIX DEWPOINTS DOWN. SO
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S WED AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105
RANGE. THIS WOULD REMAIN BELOW BOTH COOK COUNTY WARNING AND REST OF
CWA ADVISORY CRITERIA SO FOR NOW WILL JUST HEADLINE IN HWO. GFS
FASTER THAN ETA BY 6-9 HRS WITH FROPA THURS AND WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY PREFER TO GO WITH GOING SLOWER FORECAST...SUPPORTED BY
THE ETA. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE TS THURS DURING THE DAY
AND SOUTH HALF THURS NIGHT...DRYING THINGS OUT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LARGE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS...

MAIN CONCERNS ARE LAKE BREEZE DVLPMNT FOR ORD/MDW THIS AFTN...THEN
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES MAINLY LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER IA/SRN MN AND MOVEMENT TOWARD FCST AREA.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC LLVL FLOW ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY...WITH
SFC-950 MB WINDS GENERALLY BLO 10 KTS. GIVEN LIGHT GRADIENT AND
DIURNAL HEATING OF AIRMASS...EXPECT LK BRZ TO PUSH W/NW OF SHORE
THIS AFTN...AND HIGH RES VIS SAT IMAGERY AND 88-D REFLECTIVITY NOW
SHOWING LK BRZ BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND A COUPLE OF MILES FROM ABOUT
WINNETKA NORTHWARD. THOUGH TEMP/FLOW SUPPORT LK BREEZE TO CONTINUE
MOVING INLAND...EXPECT PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUS FCST...AND HAVE PUSHED TIMING BACK OF SERLY WIND SHIFT AT
KORD AND KMDW...AND HAVE KEPT WSPD BLO 10 KTS.

FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AIRMASS DESTABILIZING ACROSS FCST AREA THIS
AFTN WITH SBCAPES IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE PER SPC RUC GRAPHICS. LOOP
OF GOES VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS POSSILBE GRAVITY WAVES MOVG EAST ACROSS
NW IL/SW WI...AND THESE OR LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE LLVL FOCUS FOR
TSRA INITIATION. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF MID
LVL S/WV LIKELY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY DVLPMNT THIS AFTN. PROBABILITY
MUCH TO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA APPEARS
LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING PROVIDED DEVELOPMENT OF MCS OCCURS AS
EXPECTED OVER IA/MN. SINCE FCST OF TS IS BASED ON DVLPMNT TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS EVE...WILL ONLY GO VCTS WITH VFR CB CIG TOWARD
12Z TO HINT AT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

RATZER

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LK MI...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019
-211100-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
AFTER 4 AM CDT...TOWARD SUNRISE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN IOWA AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS THE COMPLEX MOVES EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO ALLOW FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY. IF THAT SHOULD HAPPEN...HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100 DEGREES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER
THURSDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>746-766-211100-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION
AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE WATER. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)