Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Louisville, KY

May 27, 2004Shelby County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 27, 2004, 8:50 PM EDT for Shelby County, Kentucky. It was in force for 40 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 27, 2004, 8:50 PM EDT (00:50 UTC)
Expired: May 27, 2004, 9:30 PM EDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Shelby County, KY

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 27, 9:00 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Chestnut Grove, KY	NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.
May 27, 9:00 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Chestnut Grove, KY	NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 10 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 27, 7:55 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 290 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -54 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1105 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 197 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 353 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 5.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

115 
WUUS53 KLMK 280050
SVRLMK
KYC211-280130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
849 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 844 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CHESTNUT GROVE...OR ABOUT 26 MILES EAST OF
  LOUISVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING   
  WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SHELBY COUNTY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CROPPER AROUND 855 PM EDT
  BAGDAD...PEYTONA AROUND 900 PM EDT
  GRAEFENBURG AROUND 905 PM EDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY DAMAGING WINDS.
IF YOU ARE IN THIS STORMS PATH...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE UNTIL IT HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND ANY DOWNED
POWER LINES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE NOTICE.

LAT...LON 3829 8501 3813 8503 3821 8518 3828 8537
          3835 8528 3833 8497

$$

JA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 27, 3:40 PM EDT, 5 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 3:40 PM EDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

MORNING CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH CU DEVELOPING AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 80S. WITH DEW POINTS HIGH AND SURFACE BASED LI/S MINUS
6 TO MINUS 9 ACROSS FA EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORNG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH GROUND SATURATED FROM PAST SEVERAL DAYS RAINS AND
MORE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT, WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH PRECIPITATION SLOWLY ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.

WILL FOLLOW BLEND OF GFS AND ETA FOR THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER WILL
LEAVE SHOWERS IN ON FRIDAY A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE ENDING ACROSS THE STATE WITH
DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER THE FA FOR SATURDAY. FRONT WILL START
MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS DEW
POINTS RISE AND AIR BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ETA MOS FOR SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

EAST TO WEST NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY PROVIDING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING FOR THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH BROAD UPPER TROF...EXPECT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
KY...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

SCHOLZ/PYE

Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 5:30 PM EDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
530 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-280900-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK KY-CLARK IN-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON KY-HARRISON IN-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON KY-JEFFERSON IN-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALF KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT KY-SCOTT IN-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON KY-WASHINGTON IN-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISVILLE...LEXINGTON...BOWLING GREEN...
WINCHESTER...VERSAILLES...STANFORD...SHELBYVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...
RICHMOND...HARRODSBURG...HARDINSBURG...GLASGOW...FRANKLIN...
FRANKFORT...ELIZABETHTOWN...DANVILLE...CYNTHIANA...COLUMBIA...
BARDSTOWN...NEW ALBANY...JASPER AND CORYDON
530 PM EDT (430 PM CDT) THU MAY 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE
NEEDED CONDITIONS FOR PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE, THEREFORE
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE POSTED. IN ADDITION, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

TRAINED SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUIRED TO RELAY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE. REPORT EXAMPLES INCLUDE DOWNED TREES OR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS, HAIL LARGER THAN DIME SIZE, AND
FLOODING THAT IS BLOCKING ROADWAYS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 27, 7:46 PM EDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
746 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ORGAN SPRINGS           38.48N 86.17W
05/27/2004                   WASHINGTON         IN   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

SZAPPANOS

Local storm report, May 27, 8:01 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
801 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARTINSBURG             38.45N 86.03W
05/27/2004                   WASHINGTON         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. ESTIMATED WIND GUST UP TO 70 MPH.

&&

SZAPPANOS

Local storm report, May 27, 8:09 PM EDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
809 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTOWN             38.45N 85.67W
05/27/2004  1.75 INCH        CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SZAPPANOS

Local storm report, May 27, 8:10 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
810 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHARLESTOWN             38.45N 85.67W
05/27/2004  0 MPH            CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 70 MPH. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

SZAPPANOS

Local storm report, May 27, 8:17 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
817 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             GOSHEN                  38.41N 85.59W
05/27/2004  0.75 INCH        OLDHAM             KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE CITY.

&&

SZAPPANOS

Local storm report, May 27, 8:44 PM EDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
844 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LA GRANGE               38.40N 85.38W
05/27/2004                   OLDHAM             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

SZAPPANOS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 27, 8:07 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Oldham	38 min
May 27, 8:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Henry	51 min
May 27, 8:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Oldham	37 min
May 27, 8:54 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Henry	36 min
May 27, 8:58 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Henry	32 min
May 27, 9:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Jefferson	44 min
May 27, 9:05 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Henry, Oldham	115 min
May 27, 9:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Spencer	57 min
May 27, 9:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin, Shelby	42 min
May 27, 9:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Meade	39 min
May 27, 9:38 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Scott	37 min
May 27, 9:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hardin	50 min
May 27, 10:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Fayette, Woodford	55 min
May 27, 10:13 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Jefferson	3 hr
May 27, 10:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Harrison	47 min
May 27, 10:26 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Fayette	34 min
May 27, 10:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clark	47 min
May 27, 10:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Garrard, Jessamine	43 min
May 27, 10:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Madison	52 min
May 27, 11:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Meade	29 min
May 28, 12:00 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hancock, Ohio	45 min
May 28, 12:11 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Meade	34 min
May 28, 12:16 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge	44 min
May 28, 12:22 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Jefferson	23 min
May 28, 12:22 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Bullitt	53 min
May 28, 12:26 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Grayson	34 min
May 28, 12:41 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hardin	34 min
May 28, 12:48 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Nelson	42 min
May 28, 12:54 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Bullitt	2 hr
May 28, 2:02 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Casey	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.