Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)...
SCT TSRA DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER MID MS
RIVER VLY ATTM MVG NEWD TOWARD LMK FA. ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF FA IN ASSOC WITH OUTFLOW BDY THAT SETTLED
INTO CEN KY, BUT 700MB RIDGE AXIS IN VICINITY SEEMS TO BE
SUPPRESSING CELLS FOR TIME BEING. OVERALL CONVECTION HAS POTL TO
ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SYSTEM, WITH MODEST VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
OBSERVED ON KLVX VWP. SVR POTL SHOULD INCR INTO AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS, PER SPC DAY ONE MDT RISK OVER NEARLY 1/2 OF THE FA,
WITH WIND DMG AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. CLUSTERS OF TSRA LOOK TO
CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS, MORE IN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE DROPS INTO SRN/ERN KY WED AFTERNOON,
FOCUSING BEST PCPN CHCS THERE, WITH DRYING TREND IN STORE FOR
THU/FRI AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS IN. XXV

.LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH
TRANSLATING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FROM AN AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
TO A ZONAL SOLUTION OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.  AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
WILL BE TIMING OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FAST H5 FLOW.  THE 00Z
GFS BRINGS THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK WAVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON TUESDAY.  WITH SUCH GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE
RUNS...WE PLAN ON MAKING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FCST FOR
NOW.  WILL KEEP A CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM AS THE OPERATIONAL NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  -JARVIS

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-070800-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARDSTOWN...BOWLING GREEN...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...DANVILLE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...
HARRODSBURG...JASPER...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...LOUISVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...STANFORD...
VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
1245 PM EDT (1145 AM CDT) TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT, IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, MAINLY
FOR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. A SLIGHT RISK
EXISTS ELSEWHERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE FROM VERY HIGH WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

XXV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074-
062100-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CLARK IN-
CRAWFORD IN-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-FLOYD IN-GRAYSON KY-HANCOCK KY-
HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HART KY-HENRY KY-JEFFERSON KY-JEFFERSON IN-
LARUE KY-LOGAN KY-MEADE KY-NELSON KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-
PERRY IN-SCOTT IN-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-TRIMBLE KY-
WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...SHELBYVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...HARDINSBURG...GLASGOW...FRANKLIN...ELIZABETHTOWN...
BARDSTOWN...NEW ALBANY...JASPER AND CORYDON
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY UNTIL 900 PM EDT (800 PM CDT)...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 500 PM EDT.  THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS AT TIMES.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE BRANDENBURG...LEITCHFIELD AND BOWLING GREEN AREAS
BETWEEN 400 AND 430 PM...AND POSSIBLY ARRIVING INTO THE INTERSTATE 65
CORRIDOR BY 500 PM.  EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAINS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH AND LARGE HAIL WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

JARVIS