Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 AM PDT TUE AUG 17 2004

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL START TO DECREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN EASTERN NEVADA
RESULTING IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. &&

.SHORT TERM...U/L LOW WHICH BROUGHT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING TO NRN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES LAST NIGHT IS
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING. AT 230 AM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN
HUMBOLDT...LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES. WITH STUBBORN U/L LOW MOVING
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR
ALL ZONES EXCEPT NRN NYE COUNTY FOR TODAY. GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF/S OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES AND HIGHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE LOW AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WEAK
U/L FLOW...BELIEVE THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OVER PARTS OF NRN NV. HEAVIEST SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS XTRM WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY
OUT A BIT. ADDED LIKELY WORDING FOR NORTHEASTERN ZONES TODAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. OTHERWISE...U/L LOW SWINGS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH
INTO NE NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS INTO LATE THIS WEEK AS PW/S WILL REMAIN OVER 1.00
INCHES AND LI/S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. U/L LOW FINALLY PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW U/L LOW FORMING OFF SRN CALIF
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO
CENTRAL AND NRN NV BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SINCE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND HAVE A TOUGH TIME ERODING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 1000 AM THROUGH 1000 PM PDT NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEVADA ZONES 030>037.
&&

TRUDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
600 AM PDT TUE AUG 17 2004

NVZ013-030>037-180300-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
SOUTHERN LANDER AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
600 AM PDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME...A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE SEE PRODUCT
RNOFFALKN...WGUS65 KLKN

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST
AND NORTHEAST NEVADA. THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
OVER EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER
AIR MASS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRUDEL