Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
935 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS OVER SRN LA INDICATED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AT
KLCH CAPE WAS 1240 J/KG...WHILE KLIX HAD CAPE OF 1730 J/KG. LIS
WERE RUNNING -4 TO -6 OVER SRN LA/SWRN MS...WITH MORE STABLE AIR
OVER COASTAL MS.  AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE STABLE
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE WARMING PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. STILL RATHER DRY OVER SE LA/SRN MS...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING LESS THAN 1.25 INCH. AT THE SAME
TIME...INFLOW INTO THE REGION REMAINS RATHER WEAK PER OBS.

STILL EXPECT FRONT TO PROGRESS SE INTO FORECAST AREA...WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING DAY SUN. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE FORECAST ATTM BUT
WILL CLEAN UP WORDING IN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG IT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.

SPECIAL NOTE...LIX WILL HAVE A 06Z BALLOON RELEASE/SOUNDING TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MCB 62 69 54 65 / 70 90 60 40
BTR 62 70 54 64 / 60 90 60 40
MSY 65 75 60 67 / 30 90 50 40
GPT 63 73 60 69 / 30 90 50 40
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
920 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-110100-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
920 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL HELP FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...
MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.