Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
315 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A LULL IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...MORE WET WEATHER IS POISED TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS MOVES EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE
GULF COAST REGION DURING THE PERIOD. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WAS
MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER
LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND THIS FEATURE
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION TO AN UPPER JET.
MODELS FORECAST THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND DEEPEN OVERNIGHT IN THE WESTERN
GULF AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES IT WAY NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD
PULL THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH INTO AT LEAST THE COASTAL
ZONES. UNTIL THAT OCCURS...AREAS OF DENSE ADVECTION FOG WILL PLAGUE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY
FORECAST ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
LOCALLY HEAVIER THREE INCH AMOUNTS WILL POSSIBLE. SINCE THE GROUND
REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED IN MOST AREAS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
THE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR IS MORE
LIKELY WORK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSES BY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PULLS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND SWINGS ACROSS
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
MCB 52 56 43 56 / ++ 80 50 05
BTR 54 58 44 58 / ++ 80 40 05
MSY 57 65 47 59 / ++ 70 40 10
GPT 54 64 45 59 / ++ 70 50 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-080>082.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PQL TO
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NM.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
915 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-251200-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
405 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. AREAS
OF PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE LOW LYING...FLOOD
PRONE...AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE AREA.

RIVER FLOODING...
RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS
IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. REFER TO THE LATEST
RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RIVER FLOODING...
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE PERIOD. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND OVER LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS WEDNESDAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.