Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
220 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...MUCH OF THE FOCUS REMAINS CENTERED ON THE TRACK OF
BONNIE. ALL THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA/PWA LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
TO BE LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AS THE BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTERCEPT BONNIE ON
THURSDAY AND PUSH THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO HELP USHER IN SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CARRYING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS
POINTS TO WHAT HOPEFULLY COULD BE A PLEASANT AND MILD WEEKEND
WEATHER WISE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLOW IN REBOUNDING AS THE NEW
WORK WEEK APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ALSO LOOKS TO PUT A CAP ON ANY RAIN CHANCES
PAST THURSDAY WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.POINT NUMBERS...
MCB 71 84 62 83 / 50 50 05 00
BTR 72 86 64 85 / 50 50 05 00
MSY 76 88 70 84 / 50 50 05 00
GPT 74 87 65 84 / 50 50 05 00
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT TONIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 60 NM AND THE COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 20 TO 60 NM OUT

&&

09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1115 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-121100-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. CHARLES-ST. HELENA-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-
WILKINSON-
1115 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED....A FEW STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL PRIMARILY ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT.

.MARINE HAZARDS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OUT LATER TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVES
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK AREA. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.