Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
325 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HR BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. MUCH OF THE RAIN OVER LAND SHOULD BE
ORIENTED ALONG A SHEAR AXIS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN
AFFECTING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CONUS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPARK SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TONIGHT AND LEADING INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS THEN REMAIN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION AND LIKELY PREVAIL
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY ON WOULD THEN
BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE SURFACE PATTERN DOESNT OFFER
MUCH AS WELL AFTER TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING MID WEEK AS AFTERNOON HIGHS BEGIN TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE
MID 90S ESPECIALLY IF OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIL TO DROP BELOW 78. THIS
COULD VERY WELL BE THE CASE FOR THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB  91 73 93 72 / 60 30 30 10
BTR  91 75 93 74 / 60 30 30 10
MSY  91 77 92 77 / 50 30 40 10
GPT  91 75 92 74 / 60 30 40 10
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1030 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-021130-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. CHARLES-ST. HELENA-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-
WILKINSON-
1030 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG
IN NATURE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THEM SLOWER MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 102 TO 107 ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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