Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
250 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN STORE
FOR THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY BEFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINS
TO DECREASE FRIDAY WITH POPS DECREASING TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ...NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL
INTERACT WITH A CONTINUED VERY MOIST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.8 INCHES OR GREATER...AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOULD AID IN THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL
RETROGRADE INTO TEXAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...50 PERCENT...ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS
FARTHER EAST. AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE
ON THE DECREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE. THIS PATTERN WILL
HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA AGAIN.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB  89 70 90 71 / 60 30 50 20
BTR  90 72 91 72 / 60 30 50 20
MSY  89 74 91 74 / 60 30 40 20
GPT  89 73 90 74 / 60 30 40 20
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-090000-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.