Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
230 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE
LIMITED THE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT THUS FAR. STILL...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
HEATING ALONG WITH SOME TRAILING ENERGY AVAILABLE TO SPARK SOME
PRETTY STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...SOME DRY AIR DOES LOOK TO BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST NWP
GUIDANCE. BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS STATES WEAKENING SOMEWHAT WHILE TRYING TO
MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME WEAK RIDGING TO OCCUR
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES HELPING TO PUSH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO
THE LOWER SOUTHEAST. STILL...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE SHOULD
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN PLAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE QUITE LESS FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS RIDGE PATTERN THOUGH LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY EASTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
RETURNING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TOWARD
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY BY MONDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
SHOULD RETURN TOWARD NORMAL VALUES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90
COUPLED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB 72 91 73 92 / 20 20 10 20
BTR 73 91 74 93 / 20 20 10 20
MSY 75 91 76 92 / 20 30 10 20
GPT 73 89 75 90 / 20 40 10 20
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-031100-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. CHARLES-ST. HELENA-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-
WILKINSON-
1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

.THUNDERSTORMS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME QUITE
STRONG IN NATURE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH
ARE STILL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED ON
SUNDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY...AND THEN INCREASE BACK TOWARD SCATTERED
COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.