Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1045 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREA NORTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE
AND FOR MS COAST. OTHERWISE...LEFT REMAINDER OF ZONES AND GRIDS
ALONE FOR TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH AREA FROM NORTHWEST
WAS THE PRIMARY REASON. LATE BLOOMING THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH
INTO MS COASTAL COUNTIES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
AGAIN. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY IS HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY DOWN IN SOME AREAS. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE MCS/MCV OVER SOUTHEAST
OK AND NORTHEAST TX. THE ETA/GFS BRING THE VORT MAX EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
ZONES MAINLY FOR LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE. WILL GO WITH 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE VORT MAX. WEAK SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY COME INTO PLAY AGAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO
SOUTH MS EARLY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOS POPS FROM THE GFS/ETA ARE
FAIRLY HIGH...BUT WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHTLY WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER A BIT FROM SUNDAYS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A MORE TYPICAL SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN DAILY CHANCES
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB 73 91 72 90 / 30 50 20 40
BTR 74 91 73 90 / 30 50 20 40
MSY 77 91 77 89 / 20 40 20 40
GPT 74 91 74 89 / 20 40 20 40
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-201200-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1220 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE COMPLEX MAYBE SEVERE. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORM. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
ELSEWHERE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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