Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...A WET WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY
HERE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH OF THE INLAND
PARISHES/COUNTIES RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A
FEW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ALONG WITH SOME FLOODING OF
STREETS...ROADWAYS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.  A JUICY ATMOSPHERE THAT
IS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE LOUISIANA-TEXAS BORDER WILL CONTINUE.
THUS...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN OVER THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AROUND 9 TO 10 AM AND WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD ENHANCING THE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH
LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 5 OR LOWER AND K-INDICES OF 34 OR HIGHER.
THEREFORE...THESE PARAMETERS POINT TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AGAIN.

IN VIEW OF THE VERY SATURATED SOIL AND SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY
TRAINING SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF SE LA EXCEPT THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL
RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES OR GREATER CREATING FLOOD CONDITIONS IN SOME SECTIONS ALONG
WITH MORE RISING WATERS INTO THE RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS.

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE SWRN STATES AND NRN MEXICO TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUS...WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB 82 66 84 65 / 70 20 30 10
BTR 83 67 83 66 / 70 20 30 10
MSY 82 69 84 69 / 70 20 30 00
GPT 82 68 83 68 / 70 20 30 00

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-LAZ46>050-056>065
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-MSZ077-MSZ080>082
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

05/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-191100-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1100 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

.FLASH FLOODING...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH A
SATURATED SOIL FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED AND FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING THREAT...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION MAINLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR
SHOULD THE SITUATION WARRANT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER THOUGH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1040 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     WATER SPOUT      1 S BAY ST. LOUIS       30.30N 89.33W
05/18/2004                   XXX                XX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A WATERSPOUT WAS BRIEFLY OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF BAY ST.
            LOUIS.

&&

MTS