Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS New Orleans, LA

000 
WGUS74 KLIX 121437
FFSNEW
LAC033-063-121-121615-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
925 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR WEST BATON ROUGE...EAST
BATON ROUGE AND LIVINGSTON PARISHES UNTIL 1115 AM...

WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM BRUSLY TO DENHAM SPRINGS MOVING EAST
ALONG THE I 10 CORRIDOR.

BATON ROUGE FIRE DEPART REPORTS NO ROADS CLOSED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER HIGH WATER IS REPORTED ON HIGHWAYS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
CITY AT THIS TIME. LIVINGSTON PARISH SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT SAID NO
ROADS WERE CLOSED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH HIGH WATER IS REPORTED ON
ROADWAYS IN THE DENHAM SPRINGS AREA.

BETWEEN 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ALONG THE I 10 CORRIDOR
ACCORDING TO RADAR AND OBSERVER REPORTS.

ADDITION HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO AVOID TRAVELING ALONG FLOODED ROADS. SEEK
SHELTER IN HIGH GROUND AND ARE URGED TO TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT
PROPERTY FROM FLOOD WATERS.

$$

000 
WGUS74 KLIX 121626
FFSNEW
LAC033-077-121-121659-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WEST BATON ROUGE...EAST
BATON ROUGE AND POINT COUPEE PARISHES AT 1115 AM...

A WEATHER OBSERVER AT THE LSU CAMPUS REPORTED 5.51 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL THIS MORNING IN BATON ROUGE. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN FLOODED.
BATON ROUGE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS FOUR APARTMENT BUILDINGS
WERE FLOODED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS VERY HEAVY RAIN.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO AVOID TRAVELING ALONG FLOODED ROADS UNTIL THEY
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO DRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
230 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL PROBLEMS THIS MORNING WITH HANDLING THE MCS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN LA. GFS HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING NE THROUGH SHV AND INTO
ARKANSAS THROUGH NOON TODAY. THIS IS QUITE OBVIOUSLY NOT THE CASE.
STRONG DRY AIR PUNCH BEHIND THE MCS GIVING SOME EXTRA LIFE TO THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSING BOWING ON THE FRONT END OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF THE MODELS
IS OFF...A SIMPLE REPLACEMENT OF PROGGED SYSTEMS FARTHER SOUTH WOULD
GIVE A TROUBLING RESULT.

THE DIURNAL TS SCENE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FRIDAY...IT BEGINS TO STALL. WHERE THIS
THING STALLS WILL BE PROBLEMS. MANY UPPER IMPULSES TRAVEL THE AXIS
OF THE FRONT AS IT IS WASHING OUT BUT WILL STILL BE A FOCUS FOR TS
ACTIVITY. IF THE PLACEMENT IS FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE INITIALIZED
DATA SUGGESTS...THEN THE BTR/NEW CWA WILL BE IN FOR A VERY WET
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
TOMORROW BUT WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO REISSUE IF
NECESSARY. BUT IF THIS VERY WET PROBLEM PLAYS OUT...THE FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME A SEMI-PERMENANT PRODUCT.

LOCAL TECHNIQUES ARE SUPPORTIVE ONCE AGAIN OF HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
SEVERE TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

HIGH POPS AGAIN TODAY AS AN MCS OUTFLOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN
GET THINGS GOING UNTIL AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ENOUGH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN AT THE MID LEVELS TO SET UP A WEAK CAP
EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF THE TS AND WILL WORD THE CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AS EVENING TS. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
CLEAR OF RAIN. THEN THERE IS THURSDAY AND WE DO IT ALL AGAIN AND
FRIDAY AND...

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMERS...
MCB 81/69/82/68 8363
BTR 82/70/84/69 7263
MSY 83/72/84/71 6353
GPT 80/72/81/71 6353

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ077-080>082.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

17/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
530 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-121600-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
530 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAINS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CAUSE MANY RIVER LEVELS TO RISE TO BANKFUL
AND INTO FLOOD. PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSILE TODAY DUE TO THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. ALL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND FIRST
RESPONSE AGENCIES THOUGH ARE ADVISED TO STAY ALERT FOR THIS
DEVELOPING FLOOD SITUATION TODAY.

17