Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

.SYNOPSIS...AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LATE SUNDAYS CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WHICH LEFT BEHIND AN AREA OF STABLE AND STAGNANT AIR.
AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LCH MORNING
SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE AFFECTED BY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT FROM
YESTERDAY...BETTER TO GO WITH ETA FORECAST SOUNDING. RIDGE NOTED AT
MID LEVELS ON ETA40. GFS80 HAS DECENT SUBSIDENCE.

.DISCUSSION...WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE DUE TO NVA AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING WHICH SHOULD GIVE US A LOWER THAN CLIMO DAY ON PRECIP.
EXPECTING SEABREEZE TYPE SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT MORE SPARSE COVERAGE.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED TEMPS
DOWN A DEGREE FOR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO RIDE GOING
FORECAST...NO CHANGES NEEDED. 11

...previous...
.SYNOPSIS...RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING VERY ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS
OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPING AND THEN DISSIPATING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PARISHES. ACTIVITY IS A LOT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
MORNINGS. LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED FORECAST AREA IS
CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE OF 7H RIDGE. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY
MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EDGE OF 7H RIDGE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
PROFILES. THEREFORE...WILL CALL FOR JUST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY FOR ACTIVITY THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY FOR THIS WEEK. BY TUESDAY 7H
RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEABREEZE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WILL BRING POPS TO
CLIMO (40%).

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP
PUSH A SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PUSH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO BE AOA 2 INCHES. ALSO...DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY...25H JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THUS...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF ZONES FOR NOW BUT WILL MAKE A MENTION OF IT IN THE HWO.

THE REGION WILL THEN BE STUCK BETWEEN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. GOOD MOISTURE VALUES AND A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LCH  91  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  40
BPT  91  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  40
AEX  93  73  91  71 /  20  10  40  50
LFT  90  75  90  75 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

07-RUA/11-SWEENEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
500 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
221100-
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-LOWER ST MARTIN-
NEWTON-ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON-
500 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. A FEW
OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY...
AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, HAM RADIO OPERATORS, AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

RUA