Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
200 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
For tonight, a stationary warm front will be resting near a Jasper
-Alexandria line. This frontal surface separates moist unstable air
south (LI around minus 2 C degrees) from the more stable air north.
Further-up, the subtropical jet will extend along a Brownsville to
Baton Rouge line. A few jet streaks, riding on the core of the
subtropical jet, will trek across SE Texas and Louisiana during the
evening hours, setting-off scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
global model depicts a weakening of the subtropical jet during the
overnight hours. Consequently, the convective rains will taper-off.
The overnight temperatures will be on the warm side, running around
10 F degrees above the benchmark normals.

For tomorrow, a cut-off LOW forms over W Texas in the morning begins
to travel in the afternoon and reaches central Texas near dusk.
Meanwhile, cold high pressure building over the Great Plains, will
push the stationary front south. This traveling front, now acting
like a cold front, will reach the I-10 corridor in the afternoon,
then will stall once again. The approaching cut-off LOW induces a
wave-on-the-front near Lake Charles around dusk. Moist unstable air
(LI around minus 3 C degrees) will already be in-place when the
significant omegas arrive in the afternoon courtesy of the traveling
cut-off LOW. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms seem likely,
continuing into the evening hours. Severe storms and localized
flooding rain are also possible. The afternoon temperatures will be
about seasonable.

For tomorrow night, the cut-off LOW continues its travels to the
northeast, reaching Alexandria near dawn. The convective rains will
taper-off over the coastal marshes and I-10 prairies but will be
ongoing along the Jasper-Alexandria corridor into the overnight
hours. The 24-h mean areal rainwater amounts ending Wednesday
morning, will range from 1/2 inch south, to near 1.5 inches north.
The overnight temperatures will be about seasonable.

For Wednesday, a cool stable air mass will spill across SE Texas and
Louisiana. The rains will be ending. During the afternoon hours,
temperatures will be falling across the Jasper-Alexandria corridor
holding steady elsewhere. Skies will begin to clear from north to
south during the afternoon hours.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LCH  56  67  48  55 /  30  60 90 30
BPT  57  65  47  54 /  30  60 90 30
AEX  52  60  44  48 /  50  60 80 60
LFT  56  67  50  55 /  60  50 80 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 PM LAZ045--53>055.
TX...NONE.

&&

21/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
241130-
ACADIA-ALLEN-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON 20 NM OUT-
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON 20 TO 60 NM OUT-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND 20 NM OUT-
CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND 20 TO 60 NM OUT-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST MARTIN-NEWTON-
ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-VERMILION-
VERNON-
454 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE LATER
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...
PROVIDING LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY.

MCNATT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
240000-
ACADIA-ALLEN-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON 20 NM OUT-
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON 20 TO 60 NM OUT-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND 20 NM OUT-
CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND 20 TO 60 NM OUT-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST MARTIN-NEWTON-
ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-VERMILION-
VERNON-
1010 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

...TUESDAY LOOKS WET...

AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ABRUPTLY LIFT MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR, ALREADY IN-PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, ON
TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD, RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
WHICH IS SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.