Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
230 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY CONFUSED PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS MASSIVE MCS THAT BLEW THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AT 1 PM...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LOOKING HOW THE NW TX MCS HASNT MOVED MUCH TODAY...AND DOESNT
LOOK TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE FOR OUR WEATHER...WILL LOWER POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO 30% TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONVECTION...YET STILL KEEPING SVR WORDING AS WE REMAIN UNDER AN
AREAWIDE SLIGHT RISK.

FRI DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO BE ONLY 30% COVERAGE OF TSRA BY
AFTERNOON. NOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A WAY DIFFERENT STORY. MOS
GUIDANCE DOESNT PICK UP PRECIP AT ALL. HOWEVER...THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS ALL CONVERGE ON ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OVER KS/OK FRI EVENING...
DIVING SSE (LIKE LAST NIGHTS MCS) OVER THE NW ZONES BY MORNING...
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ONE RE-
ASSURING FACT TO SUPPORT THIS IS THE H20 VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE OVER SD/NE. ALSO...THE TROF IN THE EAST DEEPENS AND LEAVES
A DECAYING FRONT OVER NE TX THRU C LA AND S MS REGION AT THE TIME...
PARALLEL TO THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THIS WILL INCREASE POPS N ZONES
FRI NIGHT TO 50%...AND 60% AREAWIDE SAT. WILL SEE.

BY SAT EVENING AND SUN...THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BUILDS A BIT FURTHER
EAST...BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. HENCE...GOING
WITH ONLY 20-30% FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. NOTHING REALLY TO FOCUS ON FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXCEPT THE STANDARD 20-30%
SEABREEZE AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LCH  71  91  76  91 /  30  30  30  60
BPT  72  92  75  91 /  30  30  30  60
AEX  68  89  70  91 /  30  30  50  60
LFT  71  89  77  91 /  30  30  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

08/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
600 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
041100-
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-LOWER ST MARTIN-
NEWTON-ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON-
600 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LINES ONCE
AGAIN. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. WARM GULF AIR WILL MAKE ITS
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, HAM RADIO OPERATORS, AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY
BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

GMZ450-455-LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-040000-
ACADIA-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
IBERIA-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-LOWER ST MARTIN-
ORANGE-ST MARY-UPPER ST MARTIN-VERMILION-
330 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

ON RARE OCCASIONS...THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS DO TOUCH THE GROUND AND
BRIEFLY BECOME WEAK TORNADOES. TYPICALLY THE WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES ARE 40 TO 60 MPH SO THEY DO POSE A THREAT TO
LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURES. SINCE THESE TROPICAL FUNNELS ARE SHORT LIVED
AND RELATIVELY WEAK...THEY ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETECT WITH
DOPPLER RADAR. KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER
IN A REINFORCED STRUCTURE SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.

TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS TYPICALLY LAST AN AVERAGE OF 8 TO 12 MINUTES.
IF THE FUNNELS DUE TOUCH DOWN...MINOR DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
TO LIGHT WEIGHT STRUCTURES. FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER WATER...OR WATERSPOUTS
...COULD POSE PROBLEMS TO MARINERS...AND CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO..COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
FOR LATER STATEMENTS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE
OBTAINED THROUGH OUR HOME PAGE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.

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