Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...OUR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS TURNED INTO A
FLOODING EVENT. WE CURRENTLY HAVE FLOOD WARNINGS UNTIL 1045 PM FOR
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SE TX...AND UNTIL 1100 PM FOR
CALCASIEU PARISH IN SW LA. THE MAIN VORT MAX IS ACROSS NE TX AT THE
MOMENT. WHAT STARTED OUT AS TWO SEPARATE MCSS COMBINED INTO A
LINEAR SW TO NE LINE OF TSRA ACROSS JEFFERSON...ORANGE AND CALCASIEU
...WITH THE TSRA TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF 4-5 INCH RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES NEAR PORT ARTHUR TX...AND WESTERN
CALCASIEU PARISH BETWEEN VINTON AND SULPHUR. THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO CATAGORICAL POPS (MEANING IT WILL DEFINITELY RAIN) WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THE ENDING EDGE OF +TSRA HAS EXITED JEFFERSON
COUNTY. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR THIS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LCH  70  84  70  84 / 100  40  20  40
BPT  71  84  71  83 /  80  40  20  40
AEX  68  84  68  84 /  80  50  30  40
LFT  70  83  69  84 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.

DML

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VORT MAX/MCS JUST WEST OF
HOUSTON MOVING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (GOES
SOUNDER PWAT AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PASSES.

SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR. EVEN THOUGH WESTERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME NVA IN WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE EARLY ON...STILL HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH INLAND.

SIMILAR PATTERN IS SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT PROVIDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTHWEST. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
121100-
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-LOWER ST MARTIN-
NEWTON-ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON-
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEAN AREAL RAINWATER AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO 1 1/2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOCAL
AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN,
ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.  HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, HAM RADIO OPERATORS, AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
917 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     FLOOD            PORT NECHES             29.97N 93.94W
05/11/2004                   JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            RIDGEWOOD ROAD IMPASSIBLE DUE TO WATER

&&

MBB