Alert archive / Louisiana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Lake Charles, LA

February 5, 2004Avoyelles Parish, Louisiana

NWS Lake Charles, LA issued this flash flood warning at Feb 5, 2004, 8:40 AM CST for Avoyelles Parish, Louisiana. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 5, 2004, 8:40 AM CST (14:40 UTC)
Expired: Feb 5, 2004, 11:45 AM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Lake Charles, LA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Avoyelles Parish, LA

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1499 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -22 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 509 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 171 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 151 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.6
Supercell composite: 7.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KLCH 051443
FFWLCH
LAC009-051745-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
840 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 1145 AM CST

* AT 838 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED   
THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS AVOYELLES PARISH DURING 
THE PAST 3 HOURS. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS   
EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 1130 AM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL 
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM BUNKIE TO MARKSVILLE.

DURING HEAVY RAINS...STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...BAYOUS AND
CREEKS. THEY ARE PRONE TO RAPID RISES AND MAY FLOOD THE AREA QUICKLY.

CALL 337-477-5285 TO REPORT FLOODING TO THE WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3119 9169 3089 9184 3087 9222 3127 9218

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS74 KLCH 051641
FFSLCH
LAC009-051745-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1034 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1145 AM CST FOR AVOYELLES
PARISH...

AT 1028 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN ACROSS AVOYELLES PARISH DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS AVOYELLES PARISH DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR. RUNOFF FROM THIS 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS CAUSED FLOODING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG 
SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS SOME STREET FLOODING. 
WATER HAS BEEN APPROACHING HOMES IN MARKSVILLE AND MANSURA...AND 
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN SIMMESPORT...BUNKIE... AND BORDELONVILLE.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

CALL 337-477-5285 TO REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lake Charles, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Feb 5, 6:08 AM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 5, 6:08 AM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
608 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.
INCLUDES ALL OF LAKE CHARLES NWS LOUISIANA PARISHES...AND JEFFERSON
AND ORANGE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS ROCKETING INTO THE MID 60S SOUTH...GENERALLY THE UPPER
50S NORTH. THIS OCCURRING ON THE HEELS OF LOW LEVEL JET WITH LCH VAD
INDICATING 50 KNOTS DOWN TO 1K FEET. EXTENT OF INCREASED
INSTABILITY WILL ADD SIGNIFICANTLY TO SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LCH 88-D SHOWING MAIN ELEVATED PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF BEAUMONT TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA. A
FEW WARNINGS WERE ISSUED AS FRONT MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH MINIMAL
SEVERE HAIL REPORTED.

VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER EAST COLORADO. NOSE
OF 120 KT JET MAX POSITIONED AT BASE OF UPPER TROF MOVING INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. FEATURE PROGGED BY MODELS TO ENTER FORECAST AREA
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH JET ENERGY REMAINING OVER REGION THROUGH THE DAY
AS TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST.  SURFACE LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST.

WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AS STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING AN AEX TO
LCH LINE TOWARD SUNSET...EXITING EAST OF THE FCST AREA CLOSE TO
MIDNIGHT.  WILL EXTEND CURRENT MORNING FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AND MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER WORDING WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH WITH FROPA BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY UNTIL UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH. WEEKEND LOOKING DRY BUT
SHARPLY COOLER. NEXT RAIN CHANCE RETURNING MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BPT  65  44  60  35  /  100 30  00  00
LCH  67  46  60  35  /  100 50  00  00
LFT  68  50  58  35  /  100 50  00  00
AEX  64  45  56  31  /  100 50  00  00

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOON...LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055.

TX...FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOON...TXZ215-216.

COASTAL WATERS...SCA...GMZ450-455-470-475.

&&

MARCOTTE

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 5, 4:11 AM CST, 4 hours 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
061100-
ACADIA-ALLEN-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON 20 NM OUT-
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON 20 TO 60 NM OUT-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND 20 NM OUT-
CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND 20 TO 60 NM OUT-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST MARTIN-NEWTON-
ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-VERMILION-
VERNON-
411 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. RAINS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT.

ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MODERATELY
UNSTABLE GULF AIR IN PLACE AND STRONG UPPER AIR SUPPORT. WIND
PROFILES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
HAIL AND WINDS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

MARCOTTE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 5, 8:28 AM CST, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
828 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HAIL             10 SE MARKSVILLE        31.02N 91.94W
02/05/2004  0.88 INCH        AVOYELLES          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ITO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lake Charles, LA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 4, 6:28 PM CST	Special Marine Warning	LCH		62 min
Feb 4, 7:25 PM CST	Special Marine Warning	LCH		65 min
Feb 5, 5:23 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LCH	Rapides	67 min
Feb 5, 7:13 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	LCH	Jefferson Davis	4 hr
Feb 5, 7:20 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LCH	Jefferson Davis	55 min
Feb 5, 9:15 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LCH	Saint Landry	30 min
Feb 5, 10:05 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	LCH	Evangeline, Saint Landry	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.