Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS North Platte, NE

May 29, 2004Custer County, Nebraska

NWS North Platte, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 29, 2004, 8:37 PM CDT for Custer County, Nebraska. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 29, 2004, 8:37 PM CDT (01:37 UTC)
Expired: May 29, 2004, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS North Platte, NE
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Custer County, NE

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 422 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2375 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 114 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

560 
WUUS53 KLBF 300137
SVRLBF
NEC041-300230-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
837 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 835 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  OCONTO...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF GOTHENBURG...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OCONTO AROUND 855 PM CDT
  8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CALLAWAY AROUND 905 PM CDT
  BROKEN BOW...8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERWYN AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  MERNA AROUND 925 PM CDT
  8 MILES WEST OF WEISSERT AROUND 930 PM CDT

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAPABLE OF 
BLOWING TREES DOWN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4105 10022 4107 9925 4153 9926 4151 10023

$$

CAB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 29, 3:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 29, 3:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
     FOR THE FIRST PERIOD, SEVERE OUTLOOK GUIDANCE HAS PRETTY MUCH
WRITTEN IT. THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPROXIMATELY EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO NORTH PLATTE. THERE
IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS IN COLORADO COULD WORK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE DRY, AND THERE IS NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE.
     THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IS A BLEND OF
ETA40 AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. I HAVE MADE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

     THE GFSLR SHOWS FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN
IN ITS TREATMENT OF THE FEATURES AFFECTING THE PLAINS THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE
ONSET OF THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT FEATURE, HOWEVER
IS BEYOND THE DAY7 FORECAST. SO, OVERALL, MY CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS
SOLUTION IS MODERATE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
     BEGINNING THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO BRING MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
A RESULT, BY FRIDAY EVENING, LIFTED INDICES DECREASE TO -4C TO -6C
OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA WITH 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY INCREASING TO 10-
12G/KG AND SATURATION DEFICITS LESS THAN 50MB. A DEVELOPING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WARM ADVECTION FOR INITIAL FORCING. MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN
THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND PRETTY MUCH CUTS OFF THE
PRECIPITATION. SO, I AM LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON A
PRIMARILY DIURNAL CYCLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
     SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA 60-65F DEWPOINTS EAST OF AINSWORTH, BROKEN BOW, AND
LEXINGTON. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z RAOB DATA SHOWED 850MB DEWPOINTS
AT OR ABOVE 10C OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA.
&&

.LBF...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NEZ058-069>071 WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&

SPRINGER

Hazardous weather outlook, May 29, 12:44 PM CDT, 7 hours 53 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301030-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DANGEROUS AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT IN WHEELER COUNTY TO OCONTO IN CUSTER
COUNTY. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXIST EAST OF A LINE FROM
MILLS IN KEYA PAHA COUNTY TO ANSELMO IN CUSTER COUNTY TO CURTIS IN
FRONTIER COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WILL BE EAST OF A
LINE FROM SPENCER IN BOYD COUNTY...TO CALLAWAY IN CUSTER COUNTY...AND
CURTIS IN FRONTIER COUNTY. MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY A FEW TORNADOES.
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM JUST EAST OF VALENTINE IN CHERRY
COUNTY TO HAYES CENTER IN HAYES COUNTY. SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM...MOIST AIR NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL STEADILY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SHEAR TO
RESULT IN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST. BY 10 PM CDT THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO END. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FROM 4 PM CDT TO 10 PM
CDT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM MILLS IN
KEYA PAHA COUNTY...TO CALLAWAY IN CUSTER COUNTY...AND CURTIS IN
FRONTIER COUNTY.

TLK/CAB

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 29, 5:53 PM CDT, 2 hours 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
553 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             4 NE ONEILL            42.50N 98.59W
05/29/2004  0.75 INCH        HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MB

Local storm report, May 29, 5:59 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
559 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TORNADO          8 N TAYLOR              41.89N 99.38W
05/29/2004                   LOUP               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS REPORTS AT CALAMUS LAKE

&&

MB

Local storm report, May 29, 7:38 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
738 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 SW MAYWOOD           40.55N 100.77W
05/29/2004  60 MPH           FRONTIER           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MB

Local storm report, May 29, 7:57 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
757 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W STOCKVILLE          40.53N 100.46W
05/29/2004  80 MPH           FRONTIER           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS BROKEN

&&

MB

Local storm report, May 29, 8:06 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
806 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE HAYES CENTER       40.44N 100.93W
05/29/2004  70 MPH           HAYES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MB

Local storm report, May 29, 8:19 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
819 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TORNADO          4 SW MAXWELL            41.04N 100.58W
05/29/2004                   LINCOLN            NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND 1 WEST OF FORT MCPHERSON MOVING
            EAST.

&&

MB

The office that day

Everything else NWS North Platte, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 7:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LBF	Brown	35 min
May 29, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Frontier, Hayes	50 min
May 29, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Blaine	62 min
May 29, 7:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Rock	56 min
May 29, 7:46 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LBF	Lincoln	29 min
May 29, 8:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LBF	Lincoln	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.