Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

...FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...

.NEAR TERM...SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DWINDLED DOWN OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN LATER TODAY WITH MORE SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABLE.

SFC LOW OVER WSTRN KS NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY. THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER NWSTRN KS...WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST. WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A LOT OF
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DECENT LIKE YESTERDAY
BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THERE WILL BE EVEN BETTER
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW. CAPE ATA 3000
J/KG AND LIS WILL APPROACH THE -8 OR GREATER. SHEAR WILL BE GREAT
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW THE FRONT. VERY LARGE HAIL IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT WITH GOOD SHEAR IN
PLACE ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
STRONG S/W WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSRA TO CONTINUE IN THE EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL NE. AS THE S/W APPROACHES THIS EVENING...IT WILL KICK
THE SFC LOW OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. A POSSIBLE MCS WILL DEVELOP AND
TRAVEL TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SFC LOW ESPECIALLY AS THIS ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE LL JET.

SUNDAY LOOKS QUIET AS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SFC LOW SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...QUICK GLANCE AT THE EXTENDED DUE TO LAST NIGHTS
ACTIVITY AND MORE FOCUS ON TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BUT
EXTENDED DOES LOOK GOOD SO MINOR CHANGES ONLY MADE MAINLY FOR
COLLABORATION EFFORTS.

&&

.LBF...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-231100-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
521 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OVER NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM MERRIMAN THROUGH
ELLSWORTH... OSHKOSH...OGALLALA AND GRANT TO HAYES CENTER. THIS
MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDES AINSWORTH...VALENTINE...MULLEN...NORTH
PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT THROUGH BURWELL...ANSELMO AND
BRADY TO STOCKVILLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER NEBRASKA WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW SUPER CELLS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A DRY LINE WILL
GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FRONT CONTINUING OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY.

SPRINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1002 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             10 SSE BARTLETT         41.75N 98.48W
05/21/2004  0.88 INCH        WHEELER            NE   PUBLIC

&&

JMC