Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
H5 ANALYISY AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWING HEALTHY WAVE SPINNING ACROSS
CENTRAL CAN PROVINCES...AIDING CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE ALSO PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. SURFACE FRONT AT 03Z
LOCATED FROM EC NORTH DAKOTA TO NW SDAKT AND INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL MOST
LIKELY STALL NEAR SD/NE BORDER AS SERIES OF WAVES EJECT OUT OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN MODERATELY FAST ZONAL FLOW. LEAD WAVE SEEMS TO
BE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN CO ATTM WITH FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO PANHANDLE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
WAVE PERHAPS ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS NE CO INTO NW KS
ATTM AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD N/NE THROUGH
THE DAY AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. BETTER MOISTURE AT H85
STILL LOCATED ACROSS SW HIGH PLAINS...PROFILERS TO THE SOUTH PICKING
UP ON STREGTHEN LLVL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE AND
SOME TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR. JET LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEB THANKS TO CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN
CO...DUE TO EJECTING WAVE...AND SHOULD KEEP SE LLVL FLOW ACROSS CWA
AND NICELY VEERED HODOGRAPH AS SEEN IN ETA BUFKIT PROFILES. WINDS
MAY EVEN BY BACKED A LITTER MORE ACROSS FAR NE ZONES IN PROXIMITY OF
SFC BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL BE KEY...BUT LOOKS TO BE DECENT CAPE AND
WITH SHEAR PROFILE SEVERE WX A GOOD POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY N/NE
ZONES. STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SW ZONES WHERE
HEATING WILL BE THE STRONGEST LEADING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
DRYLINE/INVERTED TROF SERVING FOR SFC FOCUS. TEMPS ALSO PROBLEMATIC
WITH POSSIBLE PCPN/CLD COVER KEEPING TEMPS DOWN OVER NORTHERN CWA.
SOUTH/SW LOOKS TO WARM UP ESPECIALLY IN VCNTY OF SFC LOW. AS MAIN
WAVE PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED THROUGH CWA
AND REDEVELOPMENT INTO MCS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES INTO EASTERN NEB
LOOKS LIKELY. WILL BOOST POPS UP IN NE ZONES. SHOULD SEE END FROM
MOST PCPN MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN ZONES
DURING EARLY MRN HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN KS. SHOULD BE RELATIVE QUIET UNTIL WAVE
MOVES OUT MON NITE. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS THROUGH REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED WITH FRONT IN VCNT OF CWA AND WITH UPPER LOW IN WEST
EJECTING WAVES PERIODICALLY BEFORE IT MOVES ONTO PLAINS
MIDWEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW TAKES IT PLACE FOR SIMILAR SCENARIO INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH COOLDOWN MON INTO TUES
WITH WARMUP THROUGH WEEKEND.

&&

.LBF...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1045 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-161100-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
1045 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NONE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND POSSIBLY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AND
PERHAPS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.  THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

POWER