Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
    AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS NEBRASKA, DRAGGING THE FRONT WITH IT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA. BY
12Z TUESDAY IT WILL BE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD
INTO A LARGE PART OF NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT, AS THE FRONT OSCILLATES TO AND FRO THROUGH THE
AREA, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVER DAY THIS WEEK IN ONE PART
OF THE AREA OR ANOTHER.

    THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GRIP ON THE UNUSUALLY
WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE BERING SEA. HOWEVER, HAVING SUCH AN
ANOMALY MIGHT THROW SOME DOUBT ON THE RELIABILITY OF THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS.
    AFTER THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WEAK LEE
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MY CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL IS NOT REAL HIGH AT THAT
RANGE, SO I WOULD HOLD THE PROBABILITY DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
BEYOND THAT, THE FLOW FROM A MOISTURE SOURCE IS CUT OFF BY THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WILL PROBABLY
BE VERY LIGHT.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
    THIS MORNINGS 500MB PLOT SHOWED SOME VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE ALEUTIANS ON THE ORDER OF -11C. CLOSER TO PRESENT, 19Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING AN D EASTERN
COLORADO AND ACROSS THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ON THE FRONT THERE
WAS A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER WEAK DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
DEWPOINTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WERE AROUND 50 WHILE
AROUND 40 WAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 6.7U
IMAGERY LOOP INDICATED A DEVELOPING VORTEX OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND A LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF OREGON.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&

SPRINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-191030-
ARTHUR NE-BLAINE NE-BOYD NE-BROWN NE-CHASE NE-CUSTER NE-DEUEL NE-
EASTERN CHERRY NE-FRONTIER NE-GARDEN NE-GARFIELD NE-GRANT NE-
HAYES NE-HOLT NE-HOOKER NE-KEITH NE-KEYA PAHA NE-LINCOLN NE-LOGAN NE-
LOUP NE-MCPHERSON NE-PERKINS NE-ROCK NE-SHERIDAN NE-THOMAS NE-
WESTERN CHERRY NE-WHEELER NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
316 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE AREA OF CONCERN
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
522 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             10 NE OSHKOSH           41.51N 102.21W
10/18/2004  0.88 INCH        GARDEN             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JMC