Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS North Platte, NE

July 15, 2004Custer County, Nebraska

NWS North Platte, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2004, 5:45 PM CDT for Custer County, Nebraska. It was in force for 60 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2004, 5:45 PM CDT (22:45 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2004, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS North Platte, NE
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Custer County, NE

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 15, 6:00 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	4 W Oconto, NE	NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND A LITTLE LARGER HAILSTONES WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1600 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -220 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1216 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 155 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLBF 152245
SVRLBF
NEC041-152345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF COMSTOCK
  TO MASON CITY TO 9 MILES EAST OF OCONTO TO 23 MILES WEST OF
  OCONTO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MASON CITY AROUND 605 PM CDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4160 9928 4132 9952 4127 9979 4125 10018
      4100 10016 4101 9944 4112 9919 4146 9897

$$

SPRINGER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 3:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 3:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
     THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN THE BOUNDARIES FROM NEAR VALENTINE TO
OGALLALA AND HOLDREGE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO COME OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AS
WELL.
     TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME FOR FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS IN
FROM THE EAST. THEN A FAIRLY RAPID RECOVERY IS EXPECTED, AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
     CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INITIAL FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUT WESTERN NEBRASKA UNDER A STRONG
CAP AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN MONDAY.

     FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, AND NEBRASKA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ACTIVE FASTER FLOW AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SEMI-PERMANENT SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA. THE NET RESULT OF THAT SCENARIO IS CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY IN ONE
PART OF THE NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA OR ANOTHER.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
     HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES. ONE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF VALENTINE AND OGALLALA
SEPARATED DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM THOSE IN THE 50S ANOTHER EAST
OF AINSWORTH, BROKEN BOW AND HOLDREGE SEPARATED SEVENTIES FROM 60S.
THE GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED A PLUME OF ABOUT 35MM
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SPRINGER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 2:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-161100-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
255 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...IN AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH IN BROWN COUNTY...TO
BIG SPRINGS IN DEUEL COUNTY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF WYOMING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL RESULT IN
DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OUT WEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM CDT EAST OF A LINE FROM
VALENTINE IN CHERRY COUNTY...TO BIG SPRINGS IN DEUEL COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT.

MASEK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 4:44 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
444 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             1 NW COMSTOCK           41.57N 99.26W
07/15/2004  1.00 INCH        CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

JMC

The office that day

Everything else NWS North Platte, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Custer	56 min
Jul 15, 5:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LBF	Custer	30 min
Jul 15, 5:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Lincoln	54 min
Jul 15, 6:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Holt	59 min
Jul 15, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Lincoln	54 min
Jul 15, 6:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LBF	Holt	27 min
Jul 15, 6:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Frontier	66 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.