Alert archive / U.S. Virgin Islands / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004
Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS JSJ
NWS JSJ issued this flash flood warning at Nov 14, 2004, 7:27 PM CST. It was in force for 20 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 14, 2004, 7:27 PM CST (01:27 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 15, 2004, 3:30 PM CST
- In force
- 20 hr
- Issued by
- NWS JSJ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGCA52 TJSJ 150132
FFWSJU
VIC010-150530-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
927 PM AST SUN NOV 14 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 130 AM AST
* AT 930 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS
BEEN REPORTED. EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND AND TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD FLOOD WATERS AFFECT YOUR AREA. MOTORISTS AND
PEDESTRIANS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADS AND AREAS...AS
YOU AND YOUR VEHICLE MIGHT BE SWEPT AWAY BY FLOOD WATERS. PERSONS IN
LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL CIVIL DEFENSE OR LAW OFFICIALS.
LAT...LON 1792 6457 1754 6457 1754 6498 1792 6497
$$
EM1 follow-up statement
000
WGCA72 TJSJ 150529
FFSSJU
FFWSJU
VIC010-150600-
BULLETIN - URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
130 AM AST MON NOV 15 2004
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
UNTIL 130 AM AST
...HAS EXPIRED...
AT 130 AM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
EARLIER HEAVY SHOWERS OVER SAINT CROIX WERE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR SAINT CROIX HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
$$
KIMBERLAINWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 14, 2:40 PM CST, 4 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 14, 2:40 PM CST, 4 hours 47 minutes before
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 440 PM AST SUN NOV 14 2004 .DISCUSSION... THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. HENCE CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...PROBABLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE MAY BE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS PUSHING THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...THE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO LAST LONG AS THE NEXT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. AND THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. && .MARINE... WHILE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED...THE CONDITIONS STILL WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE LOCAL SEAS FROM THE NEXT SET OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SO ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVE LATER NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS STILL RESTRICTING SOME OF THE RIVER BASINS FROM DRAINING...HENCE FLOOD WARNING STILL IN EFFECT FOR SOME BASINS. IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER NIGHT AND FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 74 86 74 86 / 60 40 60 60 STT 76 86 76 86 / 70 40 50 60 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT... SEE PRODUCTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED. && DIEHL
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST, 15 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 600 AM AST SUN NOV 14 2004 PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-151100- 600 AM AST SUN NOV 14 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO. .TODAY AND TONIGHT... A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE PUERTO RICO THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. FOR THE TIME BEING...A HIGH WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FT. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE WILL PRODUCE SPORADIC...HEAVY RAINS ...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE SWOLLEN RIVERS AND AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THE RISK OF FLOODING ALONG OR NEAR AREA RIVERS REMAINS HIGH...AND THEREFORE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND. LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS...IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FEET...WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO PERHAPS 16 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS EARLY TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING. THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL ALSO PERSIST. FOR THIS REASON...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FOR NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES ...AND CULEBRA. IN ADDITION ...HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TO EMPHASIZE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS THAT MARINERS AND BEACHGOERS MAY FACE. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MID WEEK CONDITIONS AS DRY AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME TIME. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT NEXT WEEKENDS EVENT WILL RIVAL THE CURRENT ONE. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT MORE SWELLS WILL ARRIVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...KEEPING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE GREATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-151100- 600 AM AST SUN NOV 14 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. .TODAY AND TONIGHT... A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE LAST FEW DAYS ...BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. FOR THE TIME BEING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE WILL PRODUCE SPORADIC...HEAVY RAINS ...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING. LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS...IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FEET...WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO PERHAPS 16 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS EARLY TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING. THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL ALSO PERSIST. FOR THIS REASON...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FOR NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES ...AND CULEBRA. IN ADDITION ...HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TO EMPHASIZE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS THAT MARINERS AND BEACHGOERS MAY FACE. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MID WEEK CONDITIONS AS DRY AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME TIME. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT NEXT WEEKENDS EVENT WILL RIVAL THE CURRENT ONE. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT MORE SWELLS WILL ARRIVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...KEEPING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE GREATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in U.S. Virgin Islands, 2004Every flash flood warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.