Alert archive / U.S. Virgin Islands / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS JSJ

May 14, 2004

NWS JSJ issued this flash flood warning at May 14, 2004, 7:07 PM CDT. It was in force for 18 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2004, 7:07 PM CDT (00:07 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2004, 1:00 PM CDT
In force: 18 hr
Issued by: NWS JSJ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGCA52 TJSJ 150009
FFWSJU
VIC010-150200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
807 PM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND
  IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
     SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

* AT 801 PM AST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED VERY HEAVY       
  RAIN OVER MARIAS HILL...ON SAINT CROIX. THE STORM PRODUCING VERY   
  HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING WEST. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY FLOOD GUTS AND  
  LOCAL DRAINAGES IN THE AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS 
BEEN REPORTED. EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND AND TAKE THE NECESSARY 
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD FLOOD WATERS AFFECT YOUR AREA. MOTORISTS AND 
PEDESTRIANS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADS AND AREAS...AS 
YOU AND YOUR VEHICLE MIGHT BE SWEPT AWAY BY FLOOD WATERS. PERSONS IN 
LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM 
LOCAL CIVIL DEFENSE OR LAW OFFICIALS.

LAT...LON 1790 6451 1752 6452 1752 6492 1790 6492

$$

WLS

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 150207
FFSSJU
VIC010-150300-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND
  IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
     SAINT CROIX

HAS EXPIRED.

AT 1000 PM AST WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
HEAVY RAIN WHICH AFFECTED THE ISLAND HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. 

ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING NO LONGER EXISTS YOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
REMAIN ALERT FOR ANY LINGERING WATER ON THE ROADWAYS.

$$

GR/WS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 14, 4:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 4:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 PM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WITH VORT CENTER SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WWD INTO CENTRAL
BAHAMAS CHANNELING SUB TROPICAL JET STREAM ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND PRODUCING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND HAS COMBINED WITH THE
ONSET OF INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
THIS MORNING...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTED THE EAST SECTIONS AND THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA WHERE FLOODING OCCURRED BY 11 AM...WITH AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY SHIFTING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST...WHERE SOME 4 INCH RAIN
TOTALS WERE ESTIMATED BY NWS DOPPLER RADAR. JET EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND STILL FAVORABLE
FOR GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY FOR
VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES. THIS COMBINATION OF JET DYNAMICS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS P.R.
AND THE U.S.V.I. GFS INDICATING BEST MOISTURE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST MUCH LESS
MOISTURE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE EVENT. CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE
LEEWARDS AND NE CARIB MASKING LLVL MOISTURE FIELD...BUT FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT IN GFS PERFORMANCE. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND ENSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND VERY CHOPPY SEAS TO PERSIST WITH GFS AND WWIII
FORECASTING MAX WIND AND SEAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND FORECAST
GRAPHICS WILL NEED TO BE ALTERED SLIGHTLY TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS AND INTERMITTENT RAINS OF RECENT
PRODUCING CONDITIONS RIPE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEXT 36 HOURS...AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF P.R. DYNAMICS AND
LLVL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE VI WILL GIVE THEN REASONABLE
CHANCE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUT/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  72  85 /  80  80  80  50
STT  73  81  72  84 /  80  70  60  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
PR...FFA PRZ001>006-009. SCA AMZ 710.
VI...SCA AMZ 710.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 5:10 AM CDT, 13 hours 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-151000-
610 AM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY...THE LOCAL AIRMASS STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EVEN IN SMALL QUANTITIES MAY BE SIGNIFICANT SINCE SOILS ARE
VERY SATURATED ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF. RIVERS AND STREAMS
LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AND THESE WILL FLOOD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF
RAIN OVER THEIR BASINS. LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER STEEP TERRAIN.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ROUGH AND CHOPPY ALONG OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. ELSEWHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE WEST WATERS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK SATURDAY COULD BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT DAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE EXTREME MAINLY
OVER VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO. WEATHER
THIS DAY WILL BE SEVERE. LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER STEEP TERRAIN.

A MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-151000-
610 AM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY...CONTINUOUS MODERATE TO HEAVY PASSING SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO
URBAN FLOODING AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT FROM EARLY SATURDAY
TO EVENING THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE VERY HEAVY PRODUCING HIGHER
CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

RIVERA

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 14, 1:08 PM CDT, 5 hours 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
208 PM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GUAYNABO                18.39N 66.11W
05/14/2004                   GUAYNABO           PR   PUBLIC

            FLOODED ROADS IN FORT BUCHANAN AREA. CARS STALLED IN UP
            TO 2 FEET OF WATER

&&

PC

Local storm report, May 14, 5:13 PM CDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 PM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NARANJITO               18.31N 66.25W
05/14/2004                   NARANJITO          PR   AIRPLANE PILOT

            A MUDSLIDE BLOCKED HIGHWAY 152.

&&

WLS

Local storm report, May 14, 5:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 PM AST FRI MAY 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NARANJITO               18.31N 66.25W
05/14/2004                   NARANJITO          PR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A MUDSLIDE BLOCKED HIGHWAY 152.

&&

WLS

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in U.S. Virgin Islands, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.