Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428M EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM COMES EARLY IN THE PACKAGE...SPECIFICALLY
WITH POPS TONIGHT. WITH THE PROGRESSION OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT...KEPT POPS OUT OF FAR NORTHERN ZONE...AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WHICH IS CUT OUT QUICKLY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN THE NEAR-TERM...HAVE FOLLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL SYSTEM/PRECIP CLOSER TO THE MESOETA THAN WITH
THE GFS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SMALLER
SCALE ACTIVITY IN THE PLAINS AREA EARLY ON. AS SUCH...LOOKS AS
THOUGH FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM FAR SOUTHERN WV...JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA THROUGH TN...AND THEN SW TOWARDS NW MS BY WED AFTERNOON.
COUNTING ON DEVELOPMENT TIMING MUCH AKIN TO TODAY...AND AS A
RESULT...HELD OFF BEST POPS TILL AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA...30 POPS THERE...SLIGHT ELSEWHERE. TRIMMED
POPS OFF PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THUR...AS BOTH ETA AND MAV NOW
LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH SFC WAVE ALONG FRONT. NO PARTICULARLY
NOTABLE CHANGES TO MAX/MIN THROUGH SHORT TERM...JUST TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE...AS MOS GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE TWEAKS
TENDED TOWARDS MOS.

IN THE EXTENDED...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED SIMILAR TO THAT OF SHORT TERM...MINIMAL.
POPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING TROUBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...THE RESULT OF TWO HURRICANES FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 00MRF AND 06MAV LINED UP WELL
WITH HANDLING OF TRACK OF CHARLIE...THE SYSTEM MORE LIKELY TO EFFECT
THE AREA RIGHT NOW...BUT 12MAV HASNT CAPTURED TO THE SAME
EXTENT...HARDLY SHOWING UP. EITHER WAY...EVEN WITH A WELL DEFINED
LANDFALL OF SYSTEM CAUGHT IN EARLIER RUNS...THESE RUNS KEPT A BULK
OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE APPS...MEANING DOUBTFUL RAIN HERE IN OUR
CWA. ALSO...TRACK STILL VERY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. JUST BARELY
BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1140 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY AND BENIGN COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. EVEN THE EARLIER SHOWERS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE ALL DIED OUT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA ARE ACTUALLY CLEARING AS THE FRONT PRESSES NEARER. FOR THE
FORECAST...FINE TUNED ALL THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...TAKING
SKY AND POPS DOWN A TAD. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION. FINALLY...REMOVED THE MORNING FOG
FROM THE TEXT ZONES LEAVING THE REST OF THE OF THEM ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED. IFPS GRIDS AND WEB GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

350 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

00Z SFC CHART INDICATED A COLD FNT FROM GARY IND TO THE BOOTHEEL OF
MO. SEVERAL TROFS CIRCULATING THRU THE LONGER WAVE. AT 6Z THE TSRA
WERE MOVING EAST FROM NWRN OH TO SRN IL. A FEW ROGUE STORMS
ACCOMPANING ONE OF THE S/WV IN SRN OH AHEAD OF THE MAIN FNT. THINK A
20 POP TODAY AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL COVER PCPN ACTIVITY.

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN CHANGING THEIR TIMING. THIS IS CREATING
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTANITY IN THE FCST. WHERE THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD
LIKELY POPS ON WED...THE NEW FCST HAS DROPPED TO LOW CHC. HAVE
TRENDED THE POPS ON WED TO GOOD CHC BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE I TOTALLY BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION.
NEW RUN EVEN HAS SOME OF THE BETTER POPS FOR THU BUT THIS TROF LOOKS
MORE DRY THAN WET AS THE PCPN ON WED SHOULD USE UP MOST OF THE PW.
STILL HAVE INCLUDED A SLGHT CHC THU IN THE MTNS WITH OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT TO THE S/WV.

IN THE EXTENDED...NOT MUCH CHANGE AS RIDGING WILL PROMOTE DRY BUT
COOL WEEKEND.

1130 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
SPREAD INTO IND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.  CLOSER TO HOME...VIRGA EVENTUALLY DISSIPATED AND WE ARE LEFT
WITH A QUIET NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS.
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE PLANNED TONIGHT.

518 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CENTER AROUND POPS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN (AND PREVIOUS RUNS) THE GFS WAS
SUFFERING FROM PROBLEMS ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS LATE TUE. THE INFLUENCE SPREAD INTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES...INCLUDING AN UPPER JET AND SURFACE LOW WHICH IT HAD
AFFECTING EAST KY STARTING ON WED. THE ETA WAS NOT SUFFERING FROM
THESE PROBLEMS AND APPEARED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT...AND THUS WAS THE
PREFERRED MODEL. IT HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING US FROM THE
NW LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN STALLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT INITIALLY. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THOUGH...AND WILL USE A 20 PERCENT POP
LATE TONIGHT NW...AREA WIDE ON TUE...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST TUE
EVENING. EVEN THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ETA MOS IN SOME AREAS.

ON THE 12Z RUN...THE ETA LOOKED FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON WED INTO WED
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. THIS DUE TO ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING
THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF ITS
UPPER JET...AS WELL AS THE STALLED FRONT WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING
PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR HEADING IN. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT
THE 18Z RUN DOES NOT LOOK AS MOIST...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
RE-EVALUATE THE POPS ON WED AND WED NIGHT. IN THIS PACKAGE...HAVE
USED MINIMAL LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH CHANCE NORTHWEST.

IN THE EXTENDED...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF FEATURES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...HAVE LENT TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...SPECIFICALLY WITH TEMP
FIELDS. LOOKS AS THOUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
OVER THE PLAINS IN THE MAV IS LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
OVERLY-STRONG SFC INFLECTION OF A STRONG JET STREAK SETUP. AS
SUCH...SFC LOW RIDING UP FRONT WED EVENING/EARLY THUR IS DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH...WITH COOLER LL TEMPS...THAN THE ETA. HOWEVER...AS
THE ETA TAKES SFC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER CAA THAN WOULD BE INDICATED BY
THE MAV...EXISTS. SO...AS A RESULT...DESPITE DISAGREEMENT IN
SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO TREND TEMPS FOR THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH PERIOD...IN ORDER TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MEX
MOS SOLUTION...AND ENSEMBLE INDICATIONS. FOLLOWING THUR
NIGHT...EXTENDED LEFT DRY...AS IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO IMPRESSIVE
FORCING MECHANISMS AND/OR RIDGING IN THE AREA FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

PIEPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
720 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106-108-111-114-
110900-
BATH KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-JACKSON KY-LAUREL KY-LEE KY-
MCCREARY KY-MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-POWELL KY-
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WOLFE KY-
720 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KYZ085>088-107-109-110-112-113-115>120-110900-
BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-
KNOX KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
WHITLEY KY-
720 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DUSTY