Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1200 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. HOWEVER WITH REGION STILL
EAST OF TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE WORKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR
THE VA AND TN BORDERS. THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID ADJUST FOG WORDING TO VALLEY FOG
GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

432 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE
CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL BE HELPED JUST A SMALL BIT BY WINDS THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND...BOTH AT THE SURFACE...AND PRESENT IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN OBS. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A RIDGE VALLEY
SPLIT MAY BE PRESENT LATE TONIGHT...VALLEY MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO
RESULT IN SOME FOG...AND HIGHER OVERALL SPECIFIC HEAT...AND HELP TO
COUNTERACT VALLEY COOLING...IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF A LITTLE
DEEPER LAYER WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH POPS FOR TOMORROW...BUT STILL ONLY STAND AT
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...GUIDANCE IS
ESSENTIALLY GOING FOR NIL POPS. FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT
LAPS RATES IN THE MID LEVELS TO RESULT IN A GOOD CU FIELDS...AND
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAIN AREA OF FORCING SHOULD SAG TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA SOME TIME WED AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
BEGINNING TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH TWO MECHANISMS IN THE
AREA...KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH WED
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE AGAIN APPEARING WED AFTERNOON.

WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT HIGH AS STEEP LAPSE AND PC SKIES WILL
COMBINE TO HELP MIX DOWN DECENT MOMENTUM TO THE SFC.

&&

1240 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

IN THE PROCESS OF DOING AN UPDATE. HAVE REMOVED FLOOD WATCH WHICH
EXPIRED. HAVE ALSO LOWER 1ST PERIOD POPS IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE WORKING INTO THE WEST CURRENTLY AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WILL RAISE
SKY COVER TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...SINCE IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE LATE TODAY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS
ARRIVES. HAVE ALTERED ALL ZONES TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
REMOVED PRECIP FROM TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED TEMP RANGE IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME COOLER READINGS.

&&

435 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

SQUALL LINE HAS PUSHED THRU THE CWFA. BUSY NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS
WARNINGS (SVR/TOR/FFW) IN FACT EVERY COUNTY IN CWFA RECEIVED SOME
FORM OF WARNING. COLD FNT THAT SPAWNED THIS SYSTEM HAS JUST NOW
ENTERED WRN KY. THE COLD FNT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSRA/SHRA BUT WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE SQUALL LINE IT SHOULD BE
MOISTURE STARVED. STILL THERE IS ENUF TIME FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE MID LVL CAP MAY NOT BE STRONG ENUF TO STOP THE STORMS FROM
BUILDING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POP THRU SUNSET WHEN THE
FNT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THRU.

BY EVENING...THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER/COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING TUESDAY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT PERHAPS INITIATING SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. WENT
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE MAV FOR TEMPS.

ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXTENDED SECTION DUE TO ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
537 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>119-311200-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-POWELL KY-
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-WOLFE KY-
537 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST... AND
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION...COMBINED WITH THE PATTERN OF WINDS ALOFT
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF TORNADOES WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY...
INCLUDING FUNNEL CLOUDS...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
...AND HIGH WATER DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

KYZ120-311200-
PIKE KY-
537 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY...
INCLUDING FUNNEL CLOUDS...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
...AND HIGH WATER DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

PIEPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      11 S CANNEL CITY        37.63N 83.28W
05/30/2004                   BREATHITT          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT FROM ROUTE 191.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RICE STATION            37.70N 84.04W
05/30/2004                   ESTILL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHURCH AND HOMES THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS FROM. ONGOING
            FLASH FLOODING AT REPORT TIME OF 1021 PM.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1252 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VAN LEAR                37.77N 82.76W
05/30/2004                   JOHNSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RTE 302 FLOODED AT BRADLEY CROSSING DUE TO MILLERS CREEK.
            ONGOING FLASH FLOODING AT REPORT TIME OF 1230 AM.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
117 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OWINGSVILLE             38.14N 83.76W
05/31/2004                   BATH               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A PORTION OF ROUTE 211 AND ROUTE 36 ALREADY CLOSED AT
            TIME OF REPORT.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
119 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N PRESTONSBURG        37.69N 82.77W
05/31/2004                   FLOYD              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONGOING FLASH FLOODING. US 23 AND RTE 3 INTERSECTION NEAR
            HIGHLANDS REGIONAL UNDERWATER BY 1 TO 3 FEET OF WATER.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAY CITY               37.86N 83.93W
05/31/2004                   POWELL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HWY 15 UNDER 2 FEET OF WATER AT THE MM 31 OF THE MOUNTAIN
            PARKWAY. HWY 11 AT THE NATURAL BRIDGE S.P. IS ALSO UNDER
            WATER.

&&

KO