Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 162202
FFSJKL
KYC195-162315-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
600 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PIKE COUNTY UNTIL 715 
PM EDT...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN 2 MILES SOUTH OF ELKHORN CITY...NEAR THE POND BRANCH AREA 
BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM. WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED 
AS WELL AS SHIFTED NORTH OF THIS AREA...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM 
PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ROADS...FARMLANDS 
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE 
SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVY RUNOFF COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK 
AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEPER TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

$$

GEOGERIAN

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 162305
FFSJKL
KYC195-162315-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
705 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PIKE COUNTY EXPIRES AT 715 PM...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$
GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1151 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE TRAINING ACROSS
THE HILLS OF ERN KY. THE ENTIRE AREA IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SE
AND EXPECT THIS TEND TO CONTINUE. 85H CHART AT 12Z INDICATES GOOD
JET SETTING UP TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL RAPIDLY BRING THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FNT. IN FACT IT ALREADY LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED TO
NEAR ORD AT THIS LEVEL. THE WARM AIR AT THE 85H LVL WILL TEND TO CAP
US AND AM EXPECTING THE PCPN TO SHUT OFF TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DESTABILIZE THE SFC BEFORE
THE MID LVL CAN CAP. IF THIS HAPPENS WE COULD SEE RANDOM TSRA. MUCH
OF ERN KY IS ALREADY SATURATED AND A SIG TSRA COULD SEND STREAMS
OVER THEIR BANKS. FOG TONIGHT IS ALMOST A CERTANITY...ESP IF WE GET
ANY CLEARING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSIONS...

821 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

MY LAST DISCUSSION WAS TOO PROPHETIC. COULD NOT EXCAPE BEFORE HAVING
TO UPDATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING IN PLACE IN CENTER OF
FA. REMOVED MENTION OF FOG FROM FORECAST AND INCREASED POPS ALL
ZONES. GRADUALLY PUSHED SHOWERS AND POPS TO THE EAST BY MID
DAY...FOLLOWIN META. HOPEFULLY IT HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE.

&&

634 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FA. LIGHTNING
DATA SHOWS ONLY ACTIVITY IN EASTERN HALF OF US TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. STORMS BEGAN DEVELOPING EARLY AM AND HAVE BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. META SHOWS AREA
OF ENHANCED UVV...AS DEPICTED BY OMEGA...COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF
STORMS. STORMS ATM ARE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY...AND LIKELY ARE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN SOME LOCATIONS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUS IN NEAR TERM. OMEGA AXIS IS PROGGED BY
META TO DROP JUST SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL PROBABLY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FORECAST PACKAGE...ALREADY SENT OUT...MAY HAVE POPS UNDERDONE...WITH
30 CHANCE FOR TODAY. HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO COVER PROGRESSION OF
LINE WITH SHORT TERM PRODUCTS...BUT THIS MAY REQUIRE ANY EARLY
UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING IF COVERAGE INCREASES ANY MORE.

PATTERN FOR REST OF WEEK HAS CHANGED LITTLE...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO
KEEP A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WITH CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND LIS
0F M5. BEST INSTABILITY...AS EXPECTED...IS DURING AFTERNOON AT
MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE SEVEN DAY PERIOD. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
EARLIER PACKAGES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF WX AND POPS REQUIRED.

COMPROMISED ON TEMPS BETWEEN A SOMEWHAT WARMER FWC AND COOLER MAV.

&&

1045 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA CURRENTLY
AND HAS WAVERED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 850MB FRONT STILL
REMAINS NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH CONFIRMING DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES. PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EVENING AS VORT STREAM PUSHED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. MOSAIC SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. A WEAK S/W
IS STILL ANALYZED UPSTREAM ON THE 5H CHARTS...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE IS
PRETTY WORKED OVER AND WOULD IMAGINE THIS WAVE WOULD BE INITIATING
PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF IT ALREADY. SINCE THIS ISNT CONFIRMED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH...TO SMALL
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS INTO TOMORROW AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP...HOWEVER MAIN FORCING WILL HAVE LEFT THE
CWA...AND WELL BE RELYING ON WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND INSTABILITY. FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND...KEEPING LOCATIONS FROM GETTING TOO LOW IN
VISIBILITY. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS WELL
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

315 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

SHORT TERM...FNT STILL TRYING TO PUSH EAST BUT GETTING HUNG UP ON
THE MTNS AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESS. SHRA/TSRA FORMED ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WITH THE GOOD SFC HEATING. CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE FORMING STORMS AND THEY HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AND LESS
INTENSE. FNT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU THE CWFA AND WILL KEEP
LINGERING PCPN INTO THE EARLY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO CLEAR
BUT WILL FCST FOG FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN SPITE OF STRATUS
TONIGHT AND ESPEC WITH THE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP MON/TUE.

THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS MON WITH THE GFS INDICATING
A WEAK VORT PRODUCING POSSIBLE PCPN MON AFTERNOON. FRONTAL POSITION
WIL BE THE MAJOR FACTOR TO OUR WEATHER. PREFER THE ETA AND WILL
FOLLOW THIS LEAD WITH ONLY SLGHT CHC OF DIURNAL PCPN. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF TEMPS WITH THE MAV TOO WARM AND THE NGM/MET TOO COOL.

EXTENDED...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/UKMET/GFS THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC
REGION...WITH TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS IN TURN ESTABLISHES A VERY STABLE UPPER AIR FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST WITH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS JUST SOUTH OF
THE MAIN STORM TRACK...OR WESTERLIES. CONSEQUENTLY...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY (ZONE) DEVELOPS THAT OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH IN TUNE
WITH ANY SHORT WAVES THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OCCASIONALLY THESE SHORT WAVES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SHOVE THE
FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD AGAINST A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS MEANS SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED SUMMER TYPE PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR
DIURNAL...OR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVES. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES
ITS STRONGEST MOVE SOUTHWARD...FIRST TUESDAY EVENING...INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
531 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-171100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
531 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
TODAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING BOTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
ACTIVITY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NEAR AND SHORTLY
AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL REPORTS.

MCLANE