Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 060859
FFSJKL
KYC197-061045-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EST SAT MAR 6 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

  POWELL COUNTY.

* UNTIL 545 AM EST.

AS OF 245 AM...COUNTY DISPATCH CONTINUES TO REPORT WATER FLOWING OVER 
ADAMS RIDGE ROAD IN CLAY CITY. NO FURTHER INFORMATION WAS AVAILABLE 
AT THIS TIME.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. NEVER TRAVERSE A LOW WATER 
CROSSING OR ANY ROADWAYS COVERED IN WATER.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3792 8389 3784 8377 3787 8370 3781 8379
          3779 8377 3781 8382 3779 8398 3786 8398
          3786 8401 3795 8400

$$

JP

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 061044
FFSJKL

KYC197-061115-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
543 AM EST SAT MAR 6 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR POWELL COUNTY HAS ENDED...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER
REPORTED.
$$
HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1107 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

REASONING FOR UPDATE TONIGHT WAS TO ELIMINATE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA...AS SFC PRESSURE GRAD HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
DAYTIME HEATING LOST. IN TURN...NEEDED TO UPDATE FIRST PERIOD WIND
ELEMENTS. POPS WERE NOT A PROBLEM...AS THEY REMAIN PEGGED AT
100...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPS ON TRACK AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

505 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN CNTRL KENTUCKY. ETA/GFS STILL
PUTTING OUT 2 TO 3 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...ONLY THE CORE OF HIGHER VALUES
IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
FOR ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS OF HIGHEST
QPF...FLOODING CONCERN MAY NOT BE AS HIGH DUE TO THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAY MISS THE HEAD WATER AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM AS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE
CONTINUED TO COME IN FROM ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MULTIPLE...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE. SO AREA
WILL BE UNDER COOL...UNSTABLE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES. SO
RAISED...INTRODUCED POPS FOR THOSE TIME FRAMES THAT WERE LESS
UNCERTAIN YESTERDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING...DAY VERSUS NIGHT...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

1255 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

NEEDED TO ADJUST ALL ZONES FOR RISING TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL
HIT MID TO UPPER 70S BY END OF DAY. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

WILL FOCUS NOW ON SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES.

&&

1125 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

WINDS PICKING UP THIS MORN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN EARLIER IN OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. ONE REPORT OF A BRICK AND CONCRETE WALL BLOWING DOWN NEAR
CORBIN IN WHITLEY COUNTY. DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE
FA THROUGH 4 PM. ADJUSTED SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN GRIDS FOR
CONSISTENCY. QUICK UPDATE ALREADY OUT. ONLY CHANGE FOR NOW IS ON
WINDS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT REMAINDER OF PACKAGE. TEMPS ARE
CLIMBING PRETTY RAPIDLY AND MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTING LATTER.

&&

703 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM...WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...AND POTENTIAL FLOODING BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. SECONDARY
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS. SWODY1
OUT FOR EASTERN KY...WITH STRONG LIFT AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF HAIL.

FOR TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...SPREADING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG LL JET AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL ENHANCE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FALL. PWS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MESOETA SHOWS HELICITY AROUND 730 M2/S2 ON 06Z SATURDAY, WITH AN LI
OF -1.7 FOR LOZ.

FRONT PASSES THROUGHT THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM VERY LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. A CLIPPER SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
BRINGING THE CHANCE SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE WV
BORDER.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS SHOWING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY. WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS
WILL COLLABORATION AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

ONLY MADE A FEW WORDING CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

1048 PM EST THU MAR 4 2004

CURRENTLY IN WARM SECTOR AIR AWAITING VIGOROUS SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY CEASED AFTER SUNSET...SO WILL
REMOVE ALL POPS. DESPITE GOOD SOUTHERLY WIND TAKING PLACE...TEMPS
HAVE ACTUALLY GONE BELOW FORECAST LOWS IN A FEW
PLACES...SPECIFICALLY SHELTERED VALLEYS SO WILL INCLUDE A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TO COVER. HAVE GLANCED AT SOME 00Z META DATA COMING IN
CONCERNING OUR FLOODING POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STILL LOOKS VERY PLENTIFUL WITH
SLOWLY PROGATING FRONT LEADING TO TRAINING CELLS. WAS CONSIDERING ON
ADJUSTING FLOOD WATCH AREA A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON THIS
UPDATE...HOWEVER WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE DECISION TO
WHETHER TO HOLD ONTO CURRENT SCHEME OR ADJUST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME
BEFORE ONSET OF PROBLEMATIC RAINFALL AND MORE DATA TO ANALYZE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL A CONCERN WITH HEALTHY WIND PROFILE.
INSTABILITY IS STILL THE WEAKEST COMPONENT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.

PIEPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AMENDED FOR TORNADO OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
751 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-061200-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
621 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHICH MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES.  THE GREATEST RISK OF THIS IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. THERE IS A RISK OF
FLOODING...DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A CONTINUED RISK
OF FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND.  SEE THE FLOOD WATCH (SDFFFAJKL) FOR
MORE DETAILS OF FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF FLOODING SATURDAY MORNING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
RIVER FLOODING FOR THE WHOLE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ALL HAIL...WIND...AND FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

HEINLEIN