Flash Flood Warning 110, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1255 PM TUE NOV 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO
HOURLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMPS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. TEMPS THIS MORNING
WERE RUNNING 3 OR 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS. DECIDED TO TWEEK TEMPS UP A BIT THROUGH 23Z AND ADJUSTED
DAYTIME MAXIMUMS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL DATA ALSO INDICATING POSSIBLE
WAA AT 850HPA LEVEL THAT HAD POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN AND RAISE SURFACE
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

630 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY POINTING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH ITS
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MOSAICED RADARS SHOW THE SITUATION QUITE WELL
WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN STREAMING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NOW ENTERING THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WITH THE RAIN ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWER
40S SEEN FURTHER EAST AND NORTH WHERE THE DRIER AIR IS EATING UP THE
LIGHTER SHOWERS...RESULTING IN JUST VIRGA.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THERE
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW THAT WILL OPEN UP AND SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH THEN QUICKLY
WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC LEAVING FLAT ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH KENTUCKY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A MINOR TROUGH PASSES BY
ALMOST UNNOTICED TO THE NORTH. A MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE WILL DIVE DOWN
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. SLIGHT RIDGING THEN
FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY RAINY DAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG LIFT...
PWS APPROACHING 1.40 INCHES...AND 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
ALL COMBINE TO OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DOWN
SLOPING ACROSS THE REST OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
GOOD 12 HOURS OR SO OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE SWEEPING ITS COLD
FRONT THROUGH IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A GOOD BET AS WELL INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL...850MB
...JET OF 65 KTS MAXIMIZES THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A 150 KT
300MB JET STREAK AND A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS AND WORDING TO THAT
EFFECT IN THE ZONES. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE SPREAD OUT LONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERN.
THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED NOT TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND
JUST HIT IT A BIT HARDER IN THE HWO. CAA WILL LIMIT A TEMPERATURE
RECOVER WEDNESDAY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LINGER OVER
THE FAR EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
AND LAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PUNCH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...ENDING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOJKL.

MOS TEMPS FROM THE MAV TODAY LOOK BEST AS THE OTHERS ARE TOO WARM
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LIKE THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THE BEST...THOUGH THEY ALL ARE SIMILAR AND
REASONABLE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...NOT MUCH TO SAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 100 POPS NEARLY ACROSS THE BOARD...AS SEEN IN
THE MET AND MAV. ALSO LIKED THE MAV NUMBERS THE BEST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING POPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW LINGERING POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.

AS FOR THE IFPS/GFE GRIDS...REPOPULATED WITH THE MESOETA TEMPS...
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH 60 HOURS. THESE CAME IN A TAD WARM TODAY
SO REVERTED BACK TO THE OFFICIAL GRID WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS. FOR
TONIGHT/S LOW WENT COLDER THAN OFFICIAL...CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
AS THE FRONT APPEARS TO GO THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS SOONER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. LIKEWISE...WENT WITH A COOLER SOLUTION FOR
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AS WE WILL START OUT A BIT COLDER. MOST OTHER
CHANGES WERE MINOR IN THE NEAR TERM SINCE THE INHERITED GRIDS WERE
IN GREAT SHAPE FOR POPS AND SKY. JUST NUDGED THEM EASTWARD A BIT
QUICKER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATER ON...I AM MORE IMPRESSED WITH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING CLIPPER...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME LOW QPF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

1040 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004

PRECIP HAS BEEN WORKING ACROSS WESTERN KY AND TN AND IS NOW TRYING
TO ENTER MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL KY...CURRENTLY AS FAR EAST AS A SDF
TO BWG TO BNA LINE. THE PRECIP WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE OH
VALLEY. DRY AIR STILL REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS PER CURRENT REGIONAL SFC
DEWPOINTS AND 0Z RAOB DATA. VIRGA REMAINS ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL KY
AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH CEILINGS STILL IN THE MID CLOUD RANGE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP TONIGHT AS MOISUTRE
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PICK UP...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ENOUGH
FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 6Z AND DAWN OVER THE FAR W
COUNTIES...WITH BETTER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL TOMORROW IN THE
DRIER EASTERN SECTIONS. TUE CONTINUES TO LOOK RAINY ATTM. WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND CONSIDERING CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...
LOWS OVER THE SW COUNTIES WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO HIGH...EVEN
IF WET BULBING OCCURS WITH ANY PRECIP. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE ALREADY
AROUND 40 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
FOR TEMPS TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE
MIDNIGHT REFERENCES AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE OF A STEADY TREND IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. LOWERED QPF GRIDS OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BELOW THE CLOUD BASE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. THIS WAS ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN ISC. OVERALL...THE
GRIDS LOOKED TO BE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. UPDATED ZONES ARE ALREADY OUT.

515 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004

LOW PRESSURE IN TX WITH EXTENDING INVERTED TROUGH WILL PUSH NE
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION
FIELD IS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WITH LOTS OF VIRGA PRESENT IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING. MAIN PRECIPITATION WORKS IN FOR
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE CURRENT LOW TRACK...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT WHEN WINDS VEER AROUND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIS ABOVE +2...WITH PROFILES LOOKING
MOIST ADIABATIC. WITH LOW COMING CLOSE...EXPECTING EMBEDDED BURSTS
OF CONVECTION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A T-STORM CHANCE. RESERVED
HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE JET STREAK REGION. A FEW STREAKS
OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM PROBLEMS...SO HAVE MENTIONED IN HWO.

MODELS HAVE EXITED THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FASTER WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN A TAD...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
NUMBERS THAN MOS AS MORE TIMES THAT NOT...PRECIP LINGERS A BIT
LONGER THAN MODEL PREDICTION.

EXTENDED...FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. INTERMITTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/WS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING...AS MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED WITH S/WS. NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

RICHEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
513 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011200-
BATH-BELL-BREATHITT-CLAY-ELLIOTT-ESTILL-FLEMING-FLOYD-HARLAN-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-KNOTT-KNOX-LAUREL-LEE-LESLIE-LETCHER-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
MCCREARY-MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-PIKE-POWELL-PULASKI-
ROCKCASTLE-ROWAN-WAYNE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
513 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT COULD LEAVE BEHIND UP TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL BY MORNING. AS A RESULT...MINOR ...NUISANCE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1141 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LONDON                  37.13N 84.08W
11/30/2004                   LAUREL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAUREL COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED CREEK FLOWING OVER COURT
            ROAD IN DOWNTOWN LONDON. ROAD CLOSED.

&&

CPIEPER